IKAR in Mass Media

Export of meal from Russia in 2025-2026 agricultural year may reach record 4.4 mln tonnes

MOSCOW. Dec 3 (Interfax) - Exports from Russia of high-protein meal produced from sunflower, rapeseed and soybeans in the 2025-2026 agricultural year may reach a record 4.4 million tonnes compared to 3.9 million tonnes a year earlier.

However, the realization of this export potential, primarily for soybeans and soybean meal, may face insufficient demand, putting producers, especially in the Far East, in a difficult position, the general director of the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) Dmitry Rylko said.

"In this season, thanks to a colossal soybean and rapeseed harvest and generally a decent sunflower harvest, we are getting a roughly record amount of meal for domestic consumption - consumption of almost 10 million tonnes, and a record supply - 14.5 million tonnes. And for export we get 4.4 million tonnes, which will also be a record," Rylko said at the Pig Farming 2025 scientific and practical conference in Moscow on Wednesday.

According to IKAR's forecast, the sunflower harvest this year may amount to 16.6 million to 16.8 million tonnes, the rapeseed harvest may be 5.43 million tonnes and the soybean harvest 9.35 million tonnes. "Despite a slight dip in sunflower, due to the colossal soybean harvest and a very large rapeseed and flax harvest, we get about 32 million to 33 million tonnes of oilseeds. This will be a record," he said.

At the same time, Rylko said that a key feature of the current season is that for the first time in its history, Russia is reaching full self-sufficiency in soybeans and soybean meal (key feed markets) from the European part of the country. "We get a rather serious surplus, which needs to go somewhere. And all else being equal, our price should fall below the so-called export parity in order to export this conditional surplus outside the country," he said. However, he recalled that soybean exports are restrained by a 20% duty. "Therefore, if we export, the conditional surplus from the European part will have to be exported in the form of meal," he said.

Soybean prices have decreased in all macro-regions, even falling below flax prices, which themselves have "fallen into the abyss," Rylko said. Only in the last two weeks has there been a trend towards price stabilization, although information from the Far East indicates prices are already below 25 rubles per kg. "In the Far East, the situation with soybeans looks extremely difficult for local producers," he said, noting that "China is buying a little this year," and transporting soybeans to the European part of the country costs a lot of money.

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