IKAR in Mass Media

Institute for Agricultural Market Studies raises forecast for Russia's wheat harvest to 84.5 mln tonnes in 2025

MOSCOW. June 26 (Interfax) - The Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) has raised its forecast for Russia's wheat harvest to 84.5 million tonnes this year from 83.8 million tonnes previously, IKAR CEO Dmitry Rylko told Interfax.

"The forecast has been raised based on the results of the first phase of the crop tour conducted in a number of regions," Rylko said.

Rylko said that an analysis of the condition of crops has shown that Stavropol Territory could be the leader in wheat production in Russia this year for the first time in many years, with the forecast for the crop's harvest in the region having been raised.

However, the estimate for the wheat harvest in the Rostov region has been reduced, Rylko said.

Speaking at the annual meeting of the National Union of Hog Breeders on Thursday, Rylko announced that a crop tour through central Russia and the Volga region would begin in a week. Based on preliminary data from these regions, he did not rule out that the forecast might need to be revised upwards. "I'll cautiously say there's such a possibility," he said.

At the same time, he noted that this year's harvesting conditions are decent, "but things can still change."

The projected wheat harvest of 84.5 million tonnes (Rosstat reported 82.6 million tonnes of wheat harvested in 2024) could still be achieved, despite this year's area under spring wheat being the smallest since 1970, he said. "This will be the lowest figure on record. It's no coincidence, as we're seeing severe disappointment with cultivating this crop in Western Siberia, the Urals, the Volga region and even other areas," he said. "The same applies to spring barley. Most likely, the planted area under barley will also hit its lowest since 1970. Moreover, the farther regions are from the Black Sea export market, the steeper the decline in the planted area," he said.

Assessing wheat exports in the new season (starting July 1, 2025), Rylko said, "If we take the wheat harvest of 84.5 million tonnes as a working hypothesis, it translates to 42.5 million tonnes of exports."

IKAR forecasts total grain production in 2025 at 131.8 million tonnes, with exports in the new season reaching 55 million tonnes.

The Agriculture Ministry forecasts Russia's wheat harvest to total 90 million tonnes this year amid an overall grain harvest of at least 135 million tonnes. Grain exports in the new season are estimated at 53-55 million tonnes, of which about 45 million tonnes are wheat.

Russia harvested 125.9 million tonnes of grain in 2024, including 82.6 million tonnes of wheat.

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