IKAR in Mass and Industry Media

Russian grain prices continue slow decline

Reuters

MOSCOW, April 28 (Reuters) - Russian grain prices continued their gradual decline last week, although old-crop balances remained fragile and producers offered little grain for sale.

SovEcon agricultural analysts said some producers were refraining from selling grain on the expectation that processors might raise buying prices as their stocks peter out.

Official statistics indicate that total stocks as of April 1 were 20.5 million tonnes, 5 percent down year-on-year. Stocks at large and medium farms were 12.1 million tonnes, up 0.5 percent.

But procurement and processing firms' stocks fell by 12 percent to 8.3 million tonnes.

SovEcon believes prices are likely to keep declining ahead of the new crop year on an expected high world wheat crop and Russian grain crop, as well as increased Ukrainian exports.

The Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) said third-grade milling wheat fell $3 last week to $400 per tonne in the Central Black Soil region. Feed barley fell $4 to $315 per tonne, while fourth- and fifth-grade wheat were unchanged.

SovEcon added that milling rye, which had been rising until last week, had started declining. Maize was generally stable.

"The expectations of some traders that they may sell maize at 8,500-9,000 roubles ($362.8-$384.1) per tonne are unlikely to materialise under pressure from Ukraine maize imports," SovEcon said.

Last week Russia imported 23,000 tonnes of wheat and barley, mainly from Kazakhstan. Next week is expected to show the reaction of Russian prices to the lifting of Ukrainian grain export quotas, IKAR said.

13.05.08

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