IKAR in Mass and Industry Media

Russia's grain crop outlook cut due to rain in Siberia

Reuters

MOSCOW, Oct 11 (Reuters) - Unfavourable conditions for harvesting in the Siberia region has prompted two leading agricultural analysts to cut their forecasts for Russia's 2013 grain crop.

Harvesting in Russia, one of the world's major wheat exporters, is not completed yet as crops in Siberia were delayed by a late spring and then by rain during the third quarter.

Officials expect the country's 2013 grain harvest to be 90 million tonnes by clean weight, up 27 percent year-on-year, but analysts are more pessimistic and forecast a more modest crop.

"The main factor is weather in Siberia, which is not turning for the better," the head of the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR), Dmitry Rylko, told Reuters.

Russia has already threshed 82.4 million tonnes of grain by bunker weight from 85 percent of the sown area as of Oct. 10. After cleaning and drying, these figures would be about 5 percent smaller.

Occasional light rain is expected in the Siberian main grain-growing regions during the next seven days, data from the state weather forecaster showed. Harvesting is completed on 75 percent of the area sown with grains in Siberia so far.

IKAR cut its overall 2013 grain harvest forecast by 1 million tonnes to 87 million tonnes by clean weight. The wheat crop is now expected to be slightly less than 50 million tonnes, 0.5 million tonnes lower than previously, according to Rylko.

SovEcon agricultural analysts also cut their forecast to 86 million tonnes from a previously expected 87.5 million tonnes. Its forecast for wheat was cut by 1.7 million tonnes to about 50 million tonnes, Chief Executive Andrei Sizov said.

11.10.13

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