IKAR in Mass and Industry Media

Russian Grain-Crop Estimate Lowered by Ikar Because of Rain

Bloomberg

Aug. 13 (Bloomberg) -- The grain crop in Russia, projected to be this season's fifth-biggest wheat exporter, will be smaller than previously estimated because of rain, the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies said.

The harvest will come to 89.7 million metric tons, compared with the 91.5 million-ton forecast made Aug. 1, Oleg Sukhanov, an analyst at Moscow-based Ikar, as the institute is known, said by phone today. Farmers will gather 51.8 million tons of wheat, below the 52.5 million tons predicted before, he said.

Rains are impeding cereal harvesting in Russia, according to Ikar. As of yesterday, wheat reaping lagged behind the year-earlier pace by 947,300 hectares (2.3 million acres) because of showers, according to Agriculture Ministry data. The government has set a target of reaping 95 million tons of all grains.

"Grain matured in the Black Earth regions and parts of the Volga area in July already, but it's still standing in the fields, as farmers cannot reap it because of rains," Sukhanov said.

Milling-wheat prices gained 2.7 percent last week in Russia, according to figures on the website of Moscow-based researcher SovEcon. The grain for delivery in December fell 0.4 percent to $6.465 a bushel by 5:55 p.m. Moscow time on the Chicago Board of Trade.

Grain Exports

Russia will have a "low grain quality" in the season that started July 1 because of rains and exporters will find it difficult to comply with consumers' quality requirements and compete with others, Sukhanov said.

"We will have a very low percentage of milling grain," Sukhanov said. "There will be a very tough competition with neighboring Ukraine and Kazakhstan" which are expected to have good quality, large crops.

Russia exported 2.4 million tons of grain last month, close to a record for that month, which was 2.5 million tons in 2011, he said. Shipments may come to 3 million tons in August, he said. Consumers include Turkey, Iran and Azerbaijan, according to Ikar data.

Total exports are seen at 21 million tons in 2013-14, including 15 million tons of wheat, Sukhanov estimated. Russia is forecast by the U.S. Department of Agriculture to export 17 million tons of wheat in the 2013-14 season, ranking behind the U.S., the European Union, Canada and Australia.

13.08.13

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