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Black Sea wheat export and crop outlook

Reuters

MOSCOW, May 31 (Reuters) - Potential wheat exports from the Black Sea region will rise by 31 percent to 32 million tonnes this year as Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan return as major world suppliers after last year's drought, a Reuters poll of eleven traders and analysts showed.

The combined crop of the three countries is expected to increase by 43 percent, year-on-year, to 90 million tonnes of wheat based on improvements in the yield outlook after an end to cold and dry weather in some key growing regions.

The following are detailed results of a Reuters poll on the outlook for 2013/14 wheat exports and crops in the Black Sea region (in million tonnes):

                     Russia      Russia    Russia's

                  2013 crop     2013/14     2013/14

                                 export      ending

                                             stocks

        Average        54.0        15.4         7.7

         Median        54.5        16.0         7.7

        Minimum        50.0        10.5         6.4

        Maximum        57.3        19.3         9.5

      Strategie        51.8        13.0         8.1

         Grains                          

           IKAR        53.8        16.6         7.7

  Russian Grain        55.3        19.3         7.6

          Union                          

        Sovecon        50.0        14.0         N/a

            ODA        54.5        13.8         8.5

       Prozerno        57.3        17.0         9.5

           USDA        56.0        18.0         6.4

        Agritel        51.4        10.5         6.5

    Anonymous 1        54.5        16.0         9.0

    Anonymous 2        55.2        16.8         7.0

    Anonymous 3         N/a        14.8         6.5

     

                    Ukraine     Ukraine     Ukraine

                  2013 crop     2013/14     2013/14

                                 export      ending

                                             stocks

        Average        20.5         8.6         2.8

         Median        20.4         8.5         2.8

        Minimum        19.2         7.0         1.6

        Maximum        22.0        10.0         3.8

 UkrAgroConsult        20.2         8.5         2.1

        ProAgro        19.2         8.0         1.6

  State Weather        19.3         N/a         N/a

         Centre                          

      Ukrainian        20.0         8.5         2.5

       Agrarian                          

  Confederation                          

           USDA        22.0         9.5         2.8

        Agritel        20.2         7.9         2.8

      Strategie        20.4         7.0         3.0

         Grains                          

            ODA        20.4        10.0         3.5

    Anonymous 1        21.4         9.0         3.8

    Anonymous 2        21.2         8.7         3.3

    Anonymous 3        21.0         8.5         2.4

     

                 Kazakhstan  Kazakhstan  Kazakhstan

                  2013 crop     2013/14     2013/14

                                 export      ending

                                             stocks

        Average        14.8         6.9         3.5

         Median        15.0         7.5         3.3

        Minimum        14.2         5.0         3.2

        Maximum        15.0         7.5         4.0

           USDA        15.0         7.5         3.2

        Agritel        15.0         7.5         4.0

            ODA        15.0         7.5         3.2

      Strategie        14.2         5.0         3.4

         Grains                          

31.05.13

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