IKAR in Mass and Industry Media

Russia's wheat crop outlook cut on Volga drought, yields

Reuters

MOSCOW, July 8 (Reuters) - Forecasts for Russia's 2013 wheat crop were cut by two leading agricultural analysts on Monday citing drought in several growing regions and lower-than-expected yields in the first such downgrades this year.

Traditionally the world's third largest wheat exporter, Russia is targeting a good harvest after drought last year slashed its wheat crop by a third.

Russia's Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) cut its 2013 wheat crop forecast by 3 percent to 52.4 million tonnes of wheat due to continued dry conditions in the Volga and Urals regions.

It cut its overall 2013 grain crop forecast by 2 percent to 91.9 million tonnes, Dmitry Rylko, head of IKAR, told Reuters.

While the Volga and Urals federal districts are not key for Russia's wheat exports, which come mainly from southern breadbasket regions via the Black Sea, the two areas are important for domestic demand cover.

Some parts of the Volga and Urals districts saw rains overnight, the state weather forecaster said.

The Volga district could see very heavy rain on Monday, but hot weather will also persist, it added.

SovEcon agricultural analysts also cut their forecast for Russia's 2013 wheat crop, citing lower-than-expected yields form new crop wheat as the harvest progressed, Chief Executive Andrei Sizov said.

They cut their wheat harvest forecast to 49.5-51.5 million tonnes from a previous view of 50.5-52.5 million, Sizov told Reuters.

They lowered their overall grain crop forecast to 83-87.5 million tonnes from 85-89 million, he said.

"This forecast takes into account the harvesting campaign, which shows that yields are higher than last year, when there was the drought, but lower, than during favourable 2011," Sizov said.

Wheat yields were at 3.51 tonnes per hectare as of July 4, up from 2.88 tonnes per hectare last year.

Wheat yields were at 3.76 tonnes per hectare in 2011, Sizov said.

Like IKAR, SovEcon noted drought conditions in Russia's Volga region and may downgrade its forecast again if dry weather persists there, Sizov said.

Russia is expected to harvest 54 million tonnes of wheat and to export 16 million tonnes during the 2013/14 marketing year which started on July 1, according to the latest Reuters poll.

Last year, the country harvested 71 million tonnes of grain, including 38 million tonnes of wheat.

08.07.13

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