IKAR in Mass and Industry Media

Russian Wheat Prices Are Seen by Ikar Rebounding on Stockpiles

Bloomberg

Feb. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Wheat prices in Russia, the world's third-biggest exporter of the cereal last season, may start to rise again in March or April on limited stockpiles following recent declines, according to the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies.

Prices of third-grade milling wheat, which reached a record since July 1, dropped for the first time this season in the week ended Feb. 1, retreating 1.5 percent to 11,667 rubles ($388) a metric ton in the Southern Federal District. They fell another 0.9 percent to 11,567 rubles a ton last week, according to data from the country's Grain Union.

Preparations for spring sowing, falling global wheat prices, a possible end to Russia's grain-imports duty, and expansion of grain sales from state stockpiles may have contributed to lower prices, Oleg Sukhanov, an analyst at the Moscow-based institute, also known as Ikar, said yesterday.

"Prices' decline is temporary," Sukhanov said by e-mail. "One should not expect any low wheat prices yet."

Domestic wheat prices may start rising again in March or April on low inventories and there may be localized shortages in some regions in the last months of the season that ends June 30, Sukhanov said. Melting snow will impede grain transportation to consumers from some silos in spring, which starts next month, further boosting prices, he said. Russia's stockpiles dropped 29 percent to 25.3 million tons as of Jan. 1 compared with a year earlier, state statistics data show. High domestic prices may restrain exports, according to agriculture researcher SovEcon.

Moscow Consumers

Crops in Russia were seared by drought this season and the country aims to increase grain supplies and reduce domestic food prices by selling cereals from state stockpiles. Low stocks were the main reason for a "sharp" increase in grain prices in West Siberia last week, Sukhanov said. In Altai, a region in Siberia, third-grade milling wheat was offered at as much as 12,000 rubles a ton, equal to the price of wheat delivered to the region from Kazakhstan, he said.

Russia won't ship grains at the start of the 2013-14 marketing season in July at the same pace as in recent years because of elevated domestic prices, Moscow-based SovEconsaid Jan. 30.

Russia, which the Economy Ministry estimates has a grain export potential of 30 million tons a year, has never reached that level because of market conditions, weather difficulties or inadequate technology. The country achieved record exports of 27.2 million tons last season, according to ministry data. Shipments may exceed 14 million tons in 2012-13, according to SovEcon.

Grain sales from stockpiles, while expanded geographically to the European side of the country, haven't been increased in terms of amounts released each week, discouraging a significant price reduction, Sukhanov said. Last week, Moscow millers offered 12,100 rubles a ton for third-grade milling wheat at an auction, an all-time high for wheat from state stockpiles, he said.

Wheat for March delivery fell 0.2 percent to $7.3025 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade by 9:07 a.m. London time, for a 6.1 percent decline this year.

03.03.13

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