IKAR in Mass and Industry Media

Analyst sees Russia's 2006-2007 grain exports at 8-9 mln tns

Prime-Tass

MOSCOW, July 10 (Prime-Tass) -- Russia's grain exports in the 2006-2007 marketing year (July-June) are expected to amount to 8-9 million tonnes (including flour in grain value), down from 12.5 million tonnes in 2005-2006, Igor Pavensky, an analyst at Russia's independent Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR), said Monday.

Wheat exports are expected to amount to 6.0 million-6.5 million tonnes in 2006-2007, down from 10.3 million tonnes in 2005-2006, while barley exports are expected to amount to 2.0 million-2.5 million tonnes, up from 1.7 million tonnes, Pavensky said.

Grain exports are expected to decrease due to a lower harvest expected in 2006-2007. Russia's grain output is expected to amount to about 75 million tonnes in 2006-2007, down from 78 million tonnes in 2005-2006.

"Lower production is expected in many countries this year, which will cause a general increase in grain prices," Pavensky said. Increased prices are likely to support grain exports from Russia, he added.

The forecast made by IKAR is more optimistic than that made earlier by Russia's Agriculture Minister Alexei Gordeyev. He projected Russia's 2006-2007 grain exports at 6 million-7 million tonnes, and the harvest at 70 million-73 million tonnes.

03.11.06

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