IKAR in Mass and Industry Media

Analyst says Russia's July-Sep grain exports at 3.5 mln tns

Prime-Tass

MOSCOW, Oct 13 (Prime-Tass) -- Russia's grain exports amounted to 3.5 million tonnes during the first three months of the 2006-07 marketing year (July-June), compared with 4.3 million tonnes in July-September of last year, an analyst with Russia's independent Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) said Friday.

Wheat accounted for 3.2 million tonnes during the period, declining from 3.6 million a year before, Igor Pavensky said. Exports of barley stood at around 300,000 tonnes in July-September, falling from 640,000 tonnes a year earlier, he added.

In September, grain exports stood at 1.4 million tonnes with wheat accounting for 1.35 million tonnes. Feed barley exports amounted to 40,000 tonnes last month.

"The decline in exports is explained by strong domestic prices in Russia," Pavensky said. But exports are likely to rebound in October and November due to a fall in wheat exports from Ukraine due to the introduction of mandatory licensing there, as well as resumption of barely purchases by Saudi Arabia, Russia's major export market for this grain, the analyst said. At the same time, relatively high grain prices in Russia have caused an inflow of Kazakh wheat imports. In July-September, Russia imported 465,000 tonnes of grain, up from 329,000 tonnes in the same period last year.

Pavensky has earlier said that Russia's grain exports are likely to drop to around 8-9 million tonnes (including flour in grain value) in 2006-07 from 12.5 million tonnes in 2005-06. Lower grain exports are expected amid smaller domestic output this year.

Wheat exports are expected this season at 6.0-6.5 million tonnes, down from 10.3 million in 2005-06, while barley exports are expected at 2.0-2.5 million tonnes, up from 1.7 million during the past season.

The forecast is less optimistic than that earlier made by Russia's Agriculture Minister Alexei Gordeyev, who expects Russia's 2006-07 grain exports at around 10 million tonnes.

Russia's grain exports were up in 2005-06 from the 2004-05 marketing year, when grain exports amounted to 9.1 million tonnes, including 7.7 million of wheat and 1.1 million of barley.

03.11.06

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