IKAR in Mass and Industry Media

Russian South May Export 22% Less Grain Next Year

Bloomberg

April 12 (Bloomberg) -- Russia’s grain exports from the top growing regions in the south may drop 22 percent to 14 million metric tons in the season that starts on July 1 because of a smaller crop and stockpiles, the Institute for Agricultural Markets said.

Shipments from the North-Caucasus and Southern Federal Districts are seen at 18 million tons in the current season, said Dmitry Rylko, general director at the institute, known as Ikar. The two districts accounted for about 35 percent of Russia’s total grains crop in 2011 after harvesting about 33 million tons, according to state statistics data.

The winter wheat harvest, which provides the main export commodity for the two districts, may drop to 20.8 million tons in the next marketing year, down from 22.6 million tons this year after low winter temperatures and a late spring, Rylko said today in a phone interview in Moscow. Carryover stockpiles in the two districts may drop to less than 1 million tons by July 1 from about 4 million tons a year earlier after record exports, he said.

“All these factors will result in a smaller export potential in the country’s south compared with the current season,” Rylko said.

Russia’s total grain exports are seen at 20 million tons next season, Rylko said. That compares with a record 27 million tons that Russia may ship this marketing year, according to a government estimate. Russia’s grain crop, including legumes and rice, may increase to 94.5 million tons in 2012-13 from 94.2 million tons a year earlier, Rylko said. The wheat crop may be 56 million to 57 million tons, about the same as last year, he said.

15.04.12

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