IKAR in Mass and Industry Media

Russian wheat export prices edged up last week, market assessing impact of Iran strikes

Reuters

MOSCOW, March 2 (Reuters) - Russian wheat export prices rose slightly last week, with the market still assessing the impact of strikes on Iran, analysts said on Monday.

Analysts lowered their export estimates for February, but expect an increase in March.

The price of Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content for free-on-board (FOB) delivery in April was $233.5 a metric ton at the end of last week, up $0.5 from a week earlier, Dmitry Rylko, head of the IKAR consultancy, said.

The situation with FOB prices at the beginning of the week, following the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, is not yet entirely clear, he noted.

"Exchange prices have skyrocketed. But we have a number of factors that counteract the rise in FOB prices," he said.

Prices may be affected by the situation with purchases by importers from the Persian Gulf countries and neighbouring countries as well as by dynamics of insurance premiums.

"In other words, it is not necessarily the case that the rise in exchange prices will result in an increase in FOB prices."

Russian FOB was supported last week by slow selling and a strong rouble last week, the head of Sovecon agency Andrey Sizov said.

Sovecon estimated the price for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein at $233 to $236 a ton FOB, compared with $232 to $236 the previous week. The agency lowered its estimate for wheat exports in February by 0.3 million ton to 3 million tons.

On Wednesday Sovecon trimmed its 2025/26 Russian wheat export forecast by 0.3 million ton to 45.4 million tons.

IKAR lowered its estimate for February wheat exports to 2.7-2.8 million tons from 3.1-3.2 million tons a week earlier. Exports in March are estimated at around 3.5 million tons.

Rail carrier Rusagrotrans said 2.4 million tons of wheat have been shipped for export from February 1 to 24. It estimates exports for February at 3 million tons due to difficult weather conditions in ports and for March at up to 3.5 million tons.

Analysts said that weather conditions for the new harvest are favourable.

Russia's statistics agency Rosstat released the final figures for the 2025 harvest on February 27 with 141.2 million tons of grain and legumes harvested, including 91 million tons of wheat.

Other Russian data provided by Sovecon and IKAR:

Product:
Most recent data:
Change from a week earlier

- Domestic 3rd class wheat, European part of Russia, excludes delivery (Sovecon)
13,750 rbls/t
+175 rbls/t

- Sunflower seeds (Sovecon)
36,150 rbls/t
0 rbls/t

- Domestic sunflower oil (Sovecon)
94,425 rbls/t
0 rbls/t

- Domestic soybeans (Sovecon)
28,900 rbls/t
+400 rbls/t

- Export sunflower oil (IKAR)
$1,290
$0/t

- White sugar, Russia's south (IKAR)
$687.24/t
-$4.3/t

02.03.26

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