IKAR in Mass and Industry Media

Limited shipments and strong rouble support Russian wheat export prices

Reuters

MOSCOW, Feb 24 (Reuters) - Limited shipments and a strong rouble supported Russian wheat export prices last week, which approached those of Black Sea competitors, analysts said.

The price of Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content for free-on-board delivery at the end of March was $233 a metric ton at the end of last week, unchanged from a week earlier, Dmitry Rylko, head of the IKAR consultancy, said.

Weather problems that have affected the new harvest in France and the U.S. may provide further support for prices, he said.

STORMY WEATHER AND ICE PREVENT SHIPMENTS

The situation with shipments from Russian ports remains difficult, Rylko said, as stormy weather continues in the Black Sea, and ice prevents ships from passing through the Caspian and Baltic seas.

In the Sea of Azov, however, he said convoys of ships have begun to pass through even though it is covered with ice.

High Russian prices mean some importers have been buying grain shipped to Constanta, in Romania, and Varna and Burgas in Bulgaria, rather than from Russian ports, due to a freight advantage, the Sovecon agency said in a weekly note.

It estimated the price for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein at $232-$236 a ton FOB, compared with $231-$235 at the end of the previous week. Its estimate for February wheat exports is 3.3 million tons.

IKAR has forecast wheat exports at 3.1-3.2 million tons for the month, while rail carrier Rusagrotrans said nearly 1.8 million tons of wheat have been shipped for export from February 1 to 16.

Russia's southern regions are preparing for the spring sowing campaign, which is scheduled to start in March.

"No significant weather threats are expected in the coming week. Ice crust on some fields, in our view, does not pose a serious risk at this stage. It should gradually melt as temperatures rise", Sovecon said.

Sovecon raised its 2026 Russian wheat harvest forecast by 2.1 million metric tons to 85.9 million tons last week.

Other Russian data provided by Sovecon and IKAR:

Product:
Most recent data:
Change from a week earlier

- Domestic 3rd class wheat, European part of Russia, excludes delivery (Sovecon)
13,575 rbls/t
+50 rbls/t

- Sunflower seeds (Sovecon)
36,150 rbls/t
-450rbls/t

- Domestic sunflower oil (Sovecon)
94,425 rbls/t
-175 rbls/t

- Domestic soybeans (Sovecon)
28,500 rbls/t
-900 rbls/t

- Export sunflower oil (IKAR)
$1,290
-$16/t

- White sugar, Russia's south (IKAR)
$691.54/t
+$4.92/t

24.02.26

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