IKAR in Mass and Industry Media

Russian wheat export prices dip on strong global supply

Reuters

MOSCOW, Jan 13 (Reuters) - Russian wheat export prices started 2026 with a slight decline amid strong global supply, analysts said, as highlighted in the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.

The price for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content for free-on-board delivery in February was $225 a metric ton at the start of this week, down $1 from December 27 before the New Year and Orthodox Christmas holidays, according to Dmitry Rylko, head of the IKAR consultancy.

Sovecon estimated the price for the same type of Russian wheat at $225-$227 a ton FOB, compared with $227-$229 per ton in late December.

"Russian FOB eased on muted demand as buyers anticipated stronger price pressure from Southern Hemisphere suppliers. Australia and Argentina have finished harvesting bumper crops", Sovecon said in a weekly report.

EXPORTS AND FORECASTS

Sovecon assessed December wheat exports at 4.2 million tons and expects January shipments to reach 3.2 million tons. IKAR estimates December exports at 4.4 million tons and January at 3.5 million tons.

IKAR on Tuesday raised Russia's 2025/26 wheat export potential to 46.5 million tons from a previous forecast of 44.1 million tons, factoring in state statistical agency Rosstat's December harvest data.

In its January report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture raised its Russian production forecast by 2 million tons to 89.5 million tons on higher preliminary yields reported by Rosstat.

Heavy snowfall in January provided solid protective cover for winter wheat in most regions, except in the south where snow remains minimal, Sovecon said.

Analysts warned that frosts expected this week in central Russia, reaching minus 20-27 degrees Celsius (minus 4 to minus 17 Fahrenheit), could damage crops if they persist for more than a week. An ice crust formed after recent warm weather may pose an even greater threat than low temperatures.

Other Russian data provided by Sovecon and IKAR:

Product:
Most recent data:
Change from a week earlier

- Domestic 3rd class wheat, European part of Russia, excludes delivery (Sovecon)
13,475 rbls/t
0 rbls/t

- Sunflower seeds (Sovecon)
36,300 rbls/t
0 rbls/t

- Domestic sunflower oil (Sovecon)
93,500 rbls/t
0 rbls/t

- Domestic soybeans (Sovecon)
29,250 rbls/t
0 rbls/t

- White sugar, Russia's south (IKAR) (on 12 January)
$668.54/t
+$2.13

13.01.26

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