IKAR in Mass and Industry Media

Russia's IKAR lifts grain export forecast but warns of southern crop risk

Reuters

MOSCOW, Jan 13 (Reuters) - Russia's IKAR consultancy raised the country’s grain export potential for the 2025/26 season to 60.2 million metric tons from 57.8 million tons, but warned the target may not be met due to a poor crop in the south.

IKAR increased its wheat export forecast to 46.5 million tons from 44.1 million. The current grain marketing season ends on June 30, 2026.

Russia's southern breadbasket regions, which have easy access to Black Sea ports, have suffered bad weather for two years in a row. Their lower output has been offset by bumper harvests elsewhere.

Central Russia and Siberia enjoyed better harvests in 2025, but their distance from main export terminals makes logistics costly and complex, IKAR said.

"We have doubts that this potential (for 2025/26) will be fully realized due to the peculiarity of this season, the lower share of the south in exports, which complicates logistics in an environment of low global prices," said IKAR head Dmitry Rylko.

Russia's statistics agency said on December 26 the country harvested 139.4 million tons of grain in 2024/25, up 11% from a year earlier and above the government's updated forecast of 137 million tons.

The government said such a harvest would allow Russia to maintain its exports in the current season. The country exported 53 million tons of grain last season, including 44 million tons of wheat. Russia is the biggest global exporter of wheat.

13.01.26

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