IKAR in Mass and Industry Media

Russian wheat export prices decline amid rising global supply forecasts

Reuters

MOSCOW, Nov 17 (Reuters) - Russian wheat export prices went down last week amid rising global supply forecasts, and analysts still maintain high shipment forecasts for November.

The price for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content for free-on-board (FOB) delivery in the second half of December was $229 a metric ton at the end of last week, down $3 in a week, said Dmitry Rylko, head of the IKAR consultancy.

The latest U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasts, and competitive prices for Argentine wheat, have affected FOB price dynamics, he said.

The main grain terminals in Russia's Black Sea port of Novorossiysk did not report any damage or stoppages in grain shipments on Friday after a massive Ukrainian drone and missile attack.

The USDA's November WASDE report raised its 2025/26 global ending stocks forecast. The forecast for wheat production in Russia was raised by 1.5 million tons to 86.5 million tons, while exports were lowered by 1.0 million tons to 44.0 million tons.

Russia is maintaining its grain crop forecast at 135 million tons in 2025 in clean weight, Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut said on Wednesday.

The Sovecon consultancy estimated the price for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content at $232 to $233 a ton FOB as of Thursday,the same as in the previous week.

In its latest weekly report, Sovecon lowered its estimate for wheat exports in November to 4.6 million tons, down by 0.1 million tons compared to the previous week's estimate.

IKAR maintained its estimate of November exports at 5.2 million-5.4 million tons.

Other Russian data provided by Sovecon and IKAR:

Product:
Most recent data:
Change from a week earlier

- Domestic 3rd class wheat, European part of Russia, excludes delivery (Sovecon)
14,050 rbls/t
-75

- Sunflower seeds (Sovecon)
35,475 rbls/t
+175 rbls/t

- Domestic sunflower oil (Sovecon)
94,750 rbls/t
+250 rbls/t

- Domestic soybeans (Sovecon)
29,900 rbls/t
0 rbls/t

- Export sunflower oil (IKAR)
$1,210
-$5

- White sugar, Russia's south (IKAR)
$622.83/t
+$5.97

17.11.25

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