IKAR in Mass and Industry Media

Russian wheat export prices down amid growing harvest forecasts, weather hinders shipments

Reuters

MOSCOW, Oct 13 (Reuters) - Russian wheat export prices fell last week amid rising harvest forecasts, with weather in southern ports hampering shipments, analysts said.

The price for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content for free-on-board (FOB) delivery in the end of November was at $229 a metric ton at the end of last week, down $3 from the previous week, said Dmitry Rylko, head of the IKAR consultancy.

The Sovecon consultancy, meanwhile, estimated the price at between $230 and $232 a ton FOB, unchanged from the previous week.

Higher global harvest forecasts are putting pressure on prices. Forecasts for the Russian harvest also continue to rise.

Sovecon said on Friday it had raised its forecast for Russia's wheat crop in 2025 to 87.8 million tons, reflecting record yields in Siberia.

Sovecon maintains its estimate of October wheat exports at 5 million tons.

IKAR believes that October exports may exceed its estimate of 4.5 million tons made last week, but bad weather in southern ports is still severely hampering shipments.

At the end of last week, the Russian Ministry of Agriculture confirmed its forecast for the 2025 grain harvest at 135 million tons, noting that around 10% of the area remains to be harvested.

According to the ministry's data as of 8 October, winter crops have been sown on two-thirds of the planned area, or about 12.4 million hectares out of the planned 20 million.

"Large parts of Siberia saw early snow. This is slowing the harvest and could lead to some losses, but we doubt it will seriously impact overall production in the region," Sovecon noted.

Other Russian data provided by Sovecon and IKAR:

Product:
Most recent data:
Change from a week earlier

- Domestic 3rd class wheat, European part of Russia, excludes delivery (Sovecon)
14,450 rbls/t
+25 rbls/t

- Sunflower seeds (Sovecon)
36,500 rbls/t
+350 rbls/t

- Domestic sunflower oil (Sovecon)
95,100 rbls/t
+600 rbls/t

- Domestic soybeans (Sovecon)
34,200 rbls/t
+700 rbls/t

- Export sunflower oil (IKAR)
$1,215/t
+$22

- White sugar, Russia's south (IKAR)
$601.89/t
+$15.54

13.10.25

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