IKAR in Mass and Industry Media

Russian wheat export prices up, volumes still lagging behind last year

Reuters

MOSCOW, Oct 6 (Reuters) - Russian wheat export prices rose last week amid sustained demand, and analysts said on Monday they expect exports to accelerate though they will remain at significantly lower levels than during same period last year.

The price for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content for free-on-board (FOB) delivery in the second half of November was at $232 a metric ton at the end of last week, up $2 from the previous week, said Dmitry Rylko, head of the IKAR consultancy.

The Sovecon consultancy, meanwhile, estimated the price at between $230 and $232 a ton FOB, unchanged from the previous week.

"The market needs volume," Rylko said, noting that demand was strong even as supply volumes were still not very high.

Saudi Arabia bought 455,000 metric tons of wheat in an international tender for shipment in December and January, its General Food Security Authority said on Monday. Traders said they expected the wheat to be mainly sourced from Russia and other Black Sea countries.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev on Monday estimated this year's wheat harvest at 88 million tons. And analysts see a continuing acceleration in exports.

Sovecon raised its estimate of September wheat exports by 0.3 million tons to 4.6 million tons and is forecasting exports in October will reach 5 million tons.

IKAR also raised its September wheat export estimate to 4.5 million tons, compared with 4.1 to 4.2 million tons a week earlier. It expects October exports of 4.5 million tons.

Russia has already harvested almost 128 million tons of total grains, said Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut, who on Monday reaffirmed a previous 2025 harvest forecast of 135 million tons.

The sowing campaign is slightly behind schedule due to the weather but will be carried out on the planned areas, she added.

On Friday, the state weather forecasting agency said a severe drought had hit the southern regions of the country, but its impact on the sowing campaign for the 2026 grain harvest will only become clear at the end of October.

Other Russian data provided by Sovecon and IKAR:

Product:
Most recent data:
Change from a week earlier

- Domestic 3rd class wheat, European part of Russia, excludes delivery (Sovecon)
14,425 rbls/t
-100 rbls/t

- Sunflower seeds (Sovecon)
36,150 rbls/t
+350 rbls/t

- Domestic sunflower oil (Sovecon)
94,500 rbls/t
+675 rbls/t

- Domestic soybeans (Sovecon)
33,500 rbls/t
+200 rbls/t

- Export sunflower oil (IKAR)
$1,193/t
+$8

- White sugar, Russia's south (IKAR)
$586.35/t
+$14.65

06.10.25

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