IKAR in Mass and Industry Media

Russian wheat export prices continue to decline

Reuters

MOSCOW, Sept 9 (Reuters) - Russian wheat export prices continued to decline last week while domestic rouble prices stayed flat after a three-week decline as farmers had different strategies with some accelerating selling of wheat and others withholding to get better prices.

The price for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content for free-on-board (FOB) delivery in late September-early October was $228 a metric ton at the end of last week, down $2 from the previous week, said Dmitry Rylko, head of the IKAR consultancy.

The Sovecon consultancy estimated the price at $228-230 a metric ton FOB compared to $232-234 at the end of the previous week.

"The decline is unusual for this time of year, as prices typically bottom in July–August. Given the current exchange rate and domestic prices, we believe exporters can trim FOB a few dollars more if needed," Sovecon said in a weekly note.

The rouble has weakened against the dollar in recent weeks, but remained stronger than anticipated. Sovecon said that firm demand for export provided some support for domestic rouble prices but the farmers had different strategies on the market.

"Some farmers increased supply to raise cash for corn and sunflower harvesting and winter seeding. Others postponed wheat sales in anticipation of higher prices and started selling early sunflower, which could get cheaper as harvest advances," the consultancy said.

Russian farmers have harvested 105 million metric tons of grain to date, according to Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev, and the country is on track to harvest 135 million tons in line with forecasts.

Sovecon said last week it had raised its forecast for Russia's wheat crop in 2025 forecast by 0.7 million metric tons (MMT) to 86.1 million tons, citing improved prospects in the regions adjacent to the Volga river.

The consultancy said that for the first time since 2015, Rostov will not be Russia's top wheat-producing region due to bad weather this year, ceding its position to neighbouring Stavropol with estimated wheat production at 8.2 million tons.

Sovecon analysts also estimated wheat export in September at 4.1 million metric tons, a 20% decline compared to last year.

Other Russian data provided by Sovecon and IKAR:

Product:
Most recent data:
Change from a week earlier

- Domestic 3rd class wheat, European part of Russia, excludes delivery (Sovecon)
14,325 rbls/t
No change

- Sunflower seeds (Sovecon)
36,550 rbls/t
+50 rbls/t

- Domestic sunflower oil (Sovecon)
94,325 rbls/t
1,000 rbls/t

- Domestic soybeans (Sovecon)
33,300 rbls/t
-600 rbls/t

- White sugar, Russia's south (IKAR)
$622.71
-$20.03/t

09.09.25

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