IKAR in Mass and Industry Media

Russian wheat export prices slip as analysts raise crop forecasts

Reuters

MOSCOW, Aug 18 (Reuters) - Russian wheat export prices fell slightly on low demand last week as analysts lowered August export estimates, and raised harvest forecasts.

The price for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content for free-on-board (FOB) delivery in the second half of September was $238.50 a metric ton at the end of last week, down 50 cents from the previous week, said Dmitry Rylko, head of the IKAR consultancy.

"Export supply has now reached a certain peak, but there is no particular demand," he said.

The Sovecon consultancy estimated the price at $240 per ton, noting that during the week it rose to $242 per ton.

IKAR lowered its estimate of August exports to between 3.2 and 3.5 million tons from up to 3.5 million tons it had predicted last week.

Rusagrotrans analysts also reduced export estimates in August to 3.0-3.2 million tons from about 3.55 million tons. According to them, 1.3 million tons of wheat were exported in the first half of August.

SovEcon maintains its estimate of wheat exports in August at 3.8 million tons.

Last week, regional authorities in Siberia reported delays in harvesting due to rainy weather. The main grain-producing regions in southern Russia have completed the early grain harvest: Stavropol, Krasnodar and Rostov have harvested just under 30 million tons.

IKAR raised on Monday its 2025 wheat crop forecast to 85.5 million tons and export estimate to 42.5 million tons.

The agriculture ministry said on Wednesday almost half of the planted area in Russia had been harvested for the 2025 crop, with grain production reaching 75 million tons. It said grain yields were higher than in the previous year.

Other Russian data provided by Sovecon and IKAR:

Product:
Most recent data:
Change from a week earlier

- Domestic 3rd class wheat, European part of Russia, excludes delivery (Sovecon)
14,725 rbls/t
-100 rbls/t

- Sunflower seeds (Sovecon)
34,450 rbls/t
+200 rbls/t

- Domestic sunflower oil (Sovecon)
91,325 rbls/t
+3000 rbls/t

- Domestic soybeans (Sovecon)
33,900 rbls/t
+200 rbls/t

- Export sunflower oil (IKAR)
$1,130
+$10

- White sugar, Russia's south (IKAR)
$651.87
-$0.69/t

18.08.25

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