IKAR in Mass and Industry Media

Russian seaborne wheat export prices continue slide on weak demand

Reuters

Russian wheat export prices continued to decline last week amid more active arrivals of the new harvest and sluggish export purchases, analysts said.

The price for Russian wheat with 12.5 per cent protein content for free-on-board (FOB) delivery in late September-early October was $230 a tonne at the end of last week, down $5 from the previous week, said Dmitry Rylko, head of the IKAR consultancy.

The Sovecon consultancy estimated the price at $232-234 a tonne FOB compared to $236-239 at the end of the previous week. "Exporters are cutting prices amid relatively weak import demand and the arrival of the new crop," Sovecon said in a weekly note.

Shipments at the port of Kavkaz, one of Russia's key ports in the Azov-Black Sea basin, have accelerated slightly over the past two weeks, traders said. However, existing complications with vessel passage, which have caused most of August's shipments to be postponed until September, are reducing exporters' interest in new purchases.

Analysts have raised their estimates of August exports: IKAR to 4.2 million tonnes from between 3.5 and 3.8 million tonnes it had predicted last week, and Sovecon to 4.1 million tonnes from four million. IKAR expects exports in September to amount to between 4.1 and 4.3 million tonnes.

Last week IKAR raised its 2025 wheat crop and export estimate by 0.5 million tonnes to higher yields in the Central and Volga regions. Analysts continue to raise their harvest forecasts, noting the increasingly difficult weather conditions in Siberia and the Urals.

"Ample rains in Siberia are gradually becoming an issue for the new wheat crop quality," Sovecon said.

01.09.25

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