IKAR in Mass and Industry Media

Russia expects 2025 record sunflower harvest despite problems in the south

Reuters

MOSCOW, Aug 15 (Reuters) - The sunflower harvest in Russia is expected to be record high this year, despite forecasts of a significant decline in the main southern regions, thanks to an increase in acreage and good forecasts for other regions of the country, analysts say.

Russia's IKAR consultancy forecasts a record 17.9 million-18 million metric tons compared to 16.2 million tons in 2024, and SovEcon also expects a record 17.9 million tons.

"The decline in the southern regions is offset by high figures for the Centre and Volga regions, where conditions are favourable, and we estimate that yields there will be above average," said Andrei Sizov, head of SovEcon.

State statistical agency Rosstat recorded an expected increase in sunflower acreage in Russia for the 2025 harvest amid falling wheat margins, but the increase was higher than analysts had predicted, rising by 13.2% to 11.043 million hectares.

"The market is actively pushing for an expansion of oilseed acreage and a reduction in wheat crops. This is a strong driver that will inevitably lead to new records in oilseed production, especially with favourable weather conditions", said Vitaly Shamaev, head of the analytical resource Agrospeaker.

Rusagrotrans has raised its forecast for this year's sunflower harvest in Russia to 18.5 million tons, mainly due to a reassessment of the area under cultivation, said Igor Pavensky, head of the transport company's analytical centre.

The increase in production is likely to lead to a rise in exports of sunflower oil which could potentially surpass those of Ukraine, currently the world's top exporter.

Analysts said this year's hot and dry weather has affected the harvest in Ukraine's southern regions.

SovEcon forecasts record sunflower oil exports for Russia in the new season of 4.5 million-4.7 million tons, up from 4.0 million in 2024/25, while Rusagrotrans sees a rise to 5.4 million from 5.0 million-5.1 million and IKAR to 5.2 million-5.3 million from 4.65 million.

15.08.25

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