IKAR in Mass and Industry Media

Russian new crop wheat export prices down, weather problems in focus

Reuters

MOSCOW, May 26 (Reuters) - New crop Russian wheat export prices decreased last week as the new season approaches and old crop wheat trades are very inactive, with the weather remaining the key focus, analysts said.

The price for new crop Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content for free-on-board (FOB) delivery in the second half of July was $225 per metric ton, down $2 from a week ago said Dmitry Rylko, head of the IKAR consultancy.

IKAR downgraded its estimate of wheat exports in May to 1.7-1.9 million tons from 1.8-2.0 million tons a week ago.

The Sovecon consultancy estimated prices for Russian old crop wheat with 12.5% protein content at $248-250 per ton FOB compared to $247-249 per ton FOB a week before.

According to Rusagrotrans, wheat prices for the last harvest fell below $240 with low trading activity.

Sovecon kept the forecast of May wheat exports at 1.8 million tons.

Russia has removed a minimum wheat price recommendation for its grain export traders until the end of the export season on July 1, market sources told Reuters last week.

The market is watching the weather conditions for the new crop, which have not yet prompted analysts to lower their forecasts.

Sovecon raised its 2025 Russian wheat production forecast last week. However, it warned that improved weather had not yet compensated for significant crop losses from lack of moisture in the soil at the end of last year, while dryness persisted in many regions, signalling more losses.

The agency noted that dry weather is expected this week in the main regions for winter wheat.

According to Rylko, hot and windy weather in eastern European Russia is a cause for concern.

"Our (crop) forecasts are not affected yet, but we are closely monitoring the situation," he said.

According to agriculture minister Oksana Lut, by the end of last week crops had been affected on about 136,000 hectares, almost eight times less than last year's losses. About 90% of the dead crops have already been reseeded. Sowing of spring crops has been carried out on an area of about 37 million hectares out of the planned 56 million hectares.

Russia's agriculture ministry expects Russia's grain crop in 2025 to increase compared with last year.

Other Russian data provided by Sovecon and IKAR:

Product:
Most recent data:
Change from a week earlier

- Domestic 3rd class wheat, European part of Russia, excludes delivery (Sovecon)
15,825 rbls/t
-300 rbls/t

- Sunflower seeds (Sovecon)
38,300 rbls/t
-875 rbls/t

- Domestic sunflower oil (Sovecon)
92,675 rbls/t
-325 rbls/t

- Domestic soybeans (Sovecon)
37,300 rbls/t
-900 rbls/t

- Export sunflower oil (IKAR)
$1,100/t
-$5

- White sugar, Russia's south (IKAR)
$689.74/t
-$1.33/t

26.05.25

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