IKAR in Mass and Industry Media

Russian wheat export prices rise with global prices

Reuters

MOSCOW: Russian wheat export prices rose on Monday as a partial recovery in demand from importers lifted world prices more broadly, analysts said.

The price for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content for free-on-board (FOB) delivery in April increased by $2 to $249 a metric ton, said Dmitry Rylko, head of consultancy IKAR. “You can see the emergence of some signs of demand with very low liquidity,” Rylko said.

The Sovecon consultancy placed prices for Russian wheat with the same protein content at between $247 and $250 a ton FOB, up from between $246 and $250 the previous week, citing higher Matif exchange values and stronger Romanian –Bulgarian offers.

Weekly wheat exports were estimated last week at 0.29 million tons, down from 0.31 million tons the previous week, Sovecon said.

Sovecon lowered its estimate of March wheat exports by 0.1 million tons to 1.5 million tons, significantly lower than the 4.8 million tons of exports in March last year.

Conversely, IKAR slightly increased its estimate for exports in March to 1.3 million to 1.4 million tons from 1.1 million to 1.3 million a week earlier.

IKAR said on Thursday it had cut its baseline 2024/25 wheat export forecast to around 41 million tons from 42.5 million tons.

Rail freight operator Rusagrotrans estimates March wheat exports at 1.4 million tons, of which about 400,000 tons were exported over March 1-13.

“Despite stabilising export prices and falling domestic prices, export margins remain sharply negative,” Rusagrotrans analysts noted.

Spring sowing in Russia has already been carried out on an area of 100,000 hectares and the Agriculture Ministry expects the sowing season to go on as normal, minister Oksana Lut said on Friday.

This week began with above-normal temperatures. Most winter wheat regions should stay dry, except for limited areas in the south and centre, Sovecon said.

"Given low soil moisture, adequate rainfall is now critical for plant development."

Low soil moisture after a low-snow winter creates risks for spring sowing, Rylko said last week.

Other Russian data provided by Sovecon and IKAR:

Product:
Most recent data:
Change from a week earlier

- Domestic 3rd class wheat, European part of Russia, excludes delivery (Sovecon)
16,100 rbls/t
-75 rbls/t

- Sunflower seeds (Sovecon)
39,750 rbls/t
+150 rbls/t

- Domestic sunflower oil (Sovecon)
94,500 rbls/t
+1,000 rbls/t

- Domestic soybeans (Sovecon)
38,600 rbls/t
0 rbls/t

- Export sunflower oil (IKAR)
$1,100/t
-$10

- White sugar, Russia's south (IKAR)
$669.59/t
+$10.89/t

17.03.25

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