IKAR in Mass and Industry Media

Russian wheat export prices halt rise, shipments to fall in March, analysts say

Reuters

MOSCOW, March 3 (Reuters) - Russian wheat export prices interrupted their rise last week due to weak demand and shrinking margins for exporters, despite expectations of lower March shipments, analysts said on Monday.

The price for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein for FOB delivery in late March decreased by $3 to $248 per metric ton, according to IKAR consultancy head Dmitry Rylko, who noted that Russian wheat was losing competitiveness to European wheat.

"There's just no demand", he said.

The Sovecon consultancy placed the prices for Russian wheat with the same protein content between $248 and $252 per ton FOB, slightly up from $247 to $251 the previous week. Russian FOB values climbed a few dollars in the first half of the week but edged lower later.

Russia's export quotas took effect on February 15, while bad weather at ports continues to hold back shipments.

"Exporters' demand has softened, and while lower taxes and higher FOB improved margins slightly, many exporters remain in the red. Some have reportedly transferred parts of their quotas to other traders," Sovecon said in a weekly note.

The government has set an additional quota for exports from annexed Crimea and Sevastopol of 0.4 million tons by the end of December 2025.

Weekly wheat exports were estimated last week at 0.28 million tons, down from 0.42 million tons the previous week, Sovecon said.

Sovecon downgraded estimates of February wheat exports by 0.1 million tons to 1.9 million tons comparing to actual shipments of 4.1 million tons in the same month 2024. This would mark the lowest February total since 2020, when exports were 1.7 million tons.

IKAR estimates wheat exports in February at 1.85 million tons. Wheat exports in March are estimated at between 1.1 million tons and 1.3 million tons.

Rail freight operator Rusagrotrans estimates wheat exports in March at 1.5-1.7 million tons, or at the lowest level for this month since March 2021.

IKAR cut its 2024/25 wheat export forecast last week to 42.5 million tons from 43 million tons and trimmed its 2025 wheat production estimate to 81 million tons from 82 million tons, in a base level scenario.

Statistical agency Rosstat has published a revised data of the 2024 harvest. Russia harvested 125.9 million tons of grain and legumes, including 82.6 million tons of wheat, in clean weight last year.

The Hydrometeorological Centre reported that conditions for winter grain crops at the end of their dormant period in March are satisfactory and it anticipates spring field work for the 2025 harvest will begin in southern Russia around the usual time, based on long-term averages.

Other Russian data provided by Sovecon and IKAR:

Product:
Most recent data:
Change from a week earlier

- Domestic 3rd class wheat, European part of Russia, excludes delivery (Sovecon)
16,100 rbls/t
-75 rbls/t

- Sunflower seeds (Sovecon)
39,250 rbls/t
+200 rbls/t

- Domestic sunflower oil (Sovecon)
91,925 rbls/t
0 rbls/t

- Domestic soybeans (Sovecon)
39,200 rbls/t
1,050 rbls/t

- Export sunflower oil (IKAR)
$1,110/t
0

- White sugar, Russia's south (IKAR)
$672.75/t
+$0.51/t

03.03.25

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