IKAR in Mass and Industry Media

Russia's IKAR warns grain exporters on strong rouble, trims forecasts

Reuters

MOSCOW, Feb 27 (Reuters) - Russia's IKAR consultancy warned about the potential impact of the rouble rally on grain exporters' margins on Thursday and trimmed its forecasts for wheat production in 2025 and wheat exports in the current season.

The Russian currency has gained about 23% against the dollar and 13% against the yuan this year, mostly on expectations of better relations with the United States and a peaceful settlement in Ukraine.

"The rouble strengthening further aggravates the exporters' situation," IKAR said.

Russian farmers and exporters have long complained about their falling margins amid low global prices, lower harvests due to bad weather and Western sanctions, which complicate logistics and international payments.

The Russian government has also moved to restrict wheat exports imposing a low export quota of 10.6 million tons for February-June as it seeks to protect the domestic market from high inflation.

IKAR said it had cut its wheat export forecast for the current 2024/25 season to 42.5 million tonnes from 43 million. This compares to a record of 53 million tons in 2023/24 export season.

Russia is currently the world's largest wheat exporter, supplying some of the world's biggest consumers such as Egypt, Iran, Algeria and Saudi Arabia.

IKAR also trimmed its 2025 wheat production estimate to 81 million tonnes from 82 million, in a base line scenario.

The consultancy cut the wheat production estimate to 85 million tonnes from 87 million, in an optimistic scenario, and maintained its forecast of 77 million in a pessimistic scenario.

27.02.25

All viewing: 1
Discuss