IKAR in Mass and Industry Media

Russian wheat export prices rise, New Year holidays expected to slow activity

Reuters

MOSCOW, Dec 28 (Reuters) - Russian wheat export prices rose last week, tracking global prices, with analysts expecting weak export activity due to the upcoming long New Year holiday.

Dmitry Rylko, head of the IKAR consultancy, said the price of Russian wheat with 12.5% protein for free-on-board (FOB) delivery at the end of January was up $3 to $237 per metric ton.

The Sovecon consultancy saw prices for Russian wheat with the same protein content and delivery terms at $233 to $239 per ton, compared with $232 to $238 the previous week.

Russian FOB is expected to be mostly flat on low trade activity, the agency said in a weekly report.

Weekly grain exports were estimated at 0.83 million metric tons, including 0.78 million tons of wheat, up from 0.53 million tons of grain including 0.44 million tons of wheat the previous week as shipments recovered after storm disruptions.

Sovecon has upgraded its estimates of December wheat exports by 0.1 million tons to 3.4 million tons, compared to 3.6 million tons a year ago. IKAR estimates December wheat exports at 3.6-3.7 million tons, down from 4.4 million tons in November.

Algeria is believed to have purchased 1.17 million tons of wheat this week. Some traders also expect some Russian wheat to be supplied.

Egypt’s state grain buyer, Mostakbal Misr, contracted about 1.267 million tons of wheat, most of which was sourced from Russia, two sources with direct knowledge told Reuters.

Russia's IKAR agricultural consultancy said on Thursday it saw 2025/26 wheat exports down 6% to 41 million tons.

Sovecon said on Monday that Russian wheat exports will fall by 17% to 36.4 million tons in the 2025/26 exporting season. Its forecast for the 2024/2025 season was revised to 43.7 million tons, from 44.1 million tons.

Russia harvested 125 million tons of grain and legumes, including 82 million tons of wheat, in clean weight, in 2024, down 13% from last year, data from statistical agency Rosstat showed on Thursday. The wheat harvest is also down by 13%, to 82.4 million tons.

Winter grains were sown over 17.6 million hectares, 1 million hectares less than in 2023.

Temperatures remain above normal in all regions, Sovecon noted. The Russian state weather forecasting agency sees worsening conditions for winter cereals in January in the centre of Russia and the Volga region.

Other Russian data provided by Sovecon and IKAR:

Product:
Most recent data:
Change from a week earlier

- Domestic 3rd class wheat, European part of Russia, excludes delivery (Sovecon)
15,350 rbls/t
-275 rbls/t

- Sunflower seeds (Sovecon)
39,100 rbls/t
-350 rbls/t

- Domestic sunflower oil (Sovecon)
102,825 rbls/t
-1,350 rbls/t

- Domestic soybeans (Sovecon)
38,450 rbls/t
-900 rbls/t

- Export sunflower oil (IKAR)
$1,030/t
-$20

- White sugar, Russia's south (IKAR)
$594.58/t
+$23.99/t

28.12.24

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