IKAR in Mass and Industry Media

First estimates see Russia's 2025 wheat crop close to this year's level

Reuters

MOSCOW, Oct 22 (Reuters) - Next year's wheat harvest in Russia, the world's top exporter of the grain, is seen at around this year's level, according to the first early estimates released by the country's leading agriculture consultancies on Tuesday.

The IKAR consultancy sees 2025's wheat harvest at 80 million-85 million metric tons, while Sovecon predicts 80.1 million metric tons. The official estimate for this year's wheat harvest stands at 83 million metric tons.

Bad weather including heavy rain in some regions and drought in others has complicated winter grain sowing across Russia, but IKAR said there was still hope for good sprouting in key regions.

"We see that in a number of key regions, wheat seeds sown using (an earlier and deeper) method have sprouted," said IKAR's head Dmitry Rylko. There is still time for vegetation to emerge through November, he added.

"We assume that the harvest will still be above our lower limit," he added.

Russia harvested 92.8 million tons of wheat in 2023 and a record 104.2 million tons in 2022. Sovecon said next year's estimate will be below the five-year average of 88.1 million tons.

Sovecon, which estimates the 2024 wheat harvest at 81.5 million tons, expects a reduction in the winter wheat sowing area due to bad weather and a slow sowing campaign.

It sees the total wheat sowing area slipping to 28.4 million hectares from 28.5 million in 2024, with growth in the expected spring wheat sowing area compensating for the reduction.

Sovecon also sees average wheat yields falling to 2.82 tons per hectare from 2.86 tons this year, with winter wheat yields at the lowest level since 2019.

"The poor condition of winter wheat raises concerns about an increased risk of crop failure," Sovecon said.

22.10.24

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