IKAR in Mass and Industry Media

Russian wheat export prices jump as lower supply expected

Reuters

MOSCOW, Oct 14 (Reuters) - Russian wheat export prices rose last week in anticipation of lower supply after an increase in the pace of exports at the start of the season, a smaller crop and strong demand from major importers.

The price of 12.5% protein Russian new crop wheat scheduled free-on-board (FOB) with delivery in November was $230 per metric ton at the end of last week, up $7, Dmitry Rylko, head of IKAR consultancy said.

"Еverybody is anticipating the quite limited supply from Russia in the remaining part of the season," IKAR head Dmitry Rylko said, noting the high export pace in the first three months of the season.

The Sovecon consultancy reported that prices for Russian wheat with the same protein content were $231-233 per ton, up from $222-224 the previous week.

Weekly grain exports are estimated at 1.11 million tons, up from 0.97 million a week ago, including 1.05 million tons of wheat, up from 0.87 million.

The first estimate for wheat exports in October is 4.5-4.9 million tons, compared to 4.7 million tons a year ago, Sovecon said. It raised its September export estimate by 0.1 million tons to 5.1 million tons versus 4.9 million tons a year ago.

The Russian Ministry of Agriculture told exporters last week to engage in direct deals with buyers without third parties, Russia's Grain Exporters Union said. Sources told Reuters that the ministry had recommended a new minimum price of $250 a ton for wheat to be sold at tenders.

Last week, Russian authorities lowered their official forecast for this year's grain harvest to 130 million tons, including 83 million tons of wheat.

Sovecon cut its 2024 Russian grain and legume forecast to 122.9 million metric tons, the wheat harvest to 81.5 million metric tons, driven by a significant decline in yields towards the end of the harvest in several Siberian regions.

According to the ministry's data, as of Oct.10, Russian farmers had harvested 122.0 million tons of grain. The wheat harvest totalled 85.0 million. Winter grains were sown across 14.4 million hectares, аt the same level as last year.

Sovecon noted rains began last week in regions of the country that had suffered drought.

"The rain is expected to continue into the following week. If the forecasts are realised, this could noticeably improve crop conditions for winter wheat in the South, Southern Centre, and Volga Valley regions", the consultancy said in a note.

Other Russian data provided by Sovecon and IKAR:

Product:
Most recent data:
Change from a week earlier

- Domestic 3rd class wheat, European part of Russia, excludes delivery (Sovecon)
15,475 rbls/t
+325 rbls/t

- Sunflower seeds (Sovecon)
36,150 rbls/t
+775 rbls/t

- Domestic sunflower oil (Sovecon)
89,825 rbls/t
+2,650 rbls/t

- Domestic soybeans (Sovecon)
39,700 rbls/t
0 rbls/t

- Export sunflower oil (IKAR)
$1,040/t
+$40

- White sugar, Russia's south (IKAR)
$601.60/t
-$0.32/t

14.10.24

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