IKAR in Mass and Industry Media

Russian export prices continued to rise amid challenging conditions

Reuters

MOSCOW, Oct 7 (Reuters) - Russian wheat export prices continued to rise last week, following global markets, amid continuing difficult weather conditions for the crop.

The price of 12.5% protein Russian new crop wheat scheduled free-on-board (FOB) with delivery in November was $223 per metric ton at the end of last week, up $1, Dmitry Rylko, head of IKAR consultancy said.

The Sovecon consultancy reported that prices for Russian wheat with the same protein content were $222-224 per ton, up from $219-221 the previous week.

"Dry weather in Russia continues to support bullish sentiment. Models predict rains starting in mid-October, but more reliable short-term systems show no significant precipitation during the first half of the month," Sovecon said in a weekly note.

"Farmers are voicing concerns over the state of their winter wheat across most regions, except parts of the South", - Sovecon said in a weekly note," it said, adding that Russian FOB prices are expected to "continue rising gradually".

Weekly grain exports are estimated at 0.87 million tons, down from 1.33 million a week ago, including 0.80 million tons of wheat, down from 1.29 million.

Sovecon raised its September export estimate by 0.1 million tons to 5.0 million tons versus 4.9 million tons a year ago.

However, it cut its 2024/25 Russian wheat export forecast last week to 47.6 million metric tons and total grain exports to 55.4 million metric tons due to bad weather affecting the harvest, noting high export volumes at the start of the season.

Russian grain exporters' lobby Rusgrain urged curbs on low price exports last week in the face of a lower harvest than last year and said it wanted to propose a review of the export quota mechanism.

Russia's Agriculture Ministry said it will review its 2024 crop forecast this week.

As of Oct.1, Russian farmers had harvested 111.1 million tons of grain. The wheat harvest totalled 79.3 million tons from 25.9 million hectares, down from 88.6 million tons from 26.0 million hectares last year, Sovecon said.

Winter grains were sown across 10.1 million hectares, compared to 11.2 million hectares in 2023.

Other Russian data provided by Sovecon and IKAR:

Product:
Most recent data:
Change from a week earlier

- Domestic 3rd class wheat, European part of Russia, excludes delivery (Sovecon)
15,150 rbls/t
+275 rbls/t

- Sunflower seeds (Sovecon)
35,375 rbls/t
+800 rbls/t

- Domestic sunflower oil (Sovecon)
87,175 rbls/t
+1,000 rbls/t

- Domestic soybeans (Sovecon)
39,700 rbls/t
+1,800 rbls/t

- Export sunflower oil (IKAR)
$1,000/t
+$20

- White sugar, Russia's south (IKAR)
$601.92/t
-$15.98/t

07.10.24

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