IKAR in Mass and Industry Media

Russian sugar output will drop 10% in 2024/25 season

Reuters

MOSCOW, Sept 27 (Reuters) - Russia will produce 6.1-6.2 million tons of sugar in the 2024/25 season, a 10% drop compared to last year, but will supply at least 600,000 tons to international markets after an export ban was lifted this month, IKAR consultancy said on Friday.

IKAR analyst Evgeny Ivanov told an agricultural investor conference that 10% growth in the sugar beet sown area would not fully offset crop losses from extreme weather such as early spring frosts and summer drought.

"This will only partially offset the yield failure due to drought in the European part. The May frosts in the Black Earth region as well as the Volga and Ural regions have also contributed to the decrease in yield," Ivanov said.

He estimated that sugar beet had to be re-sown in 10% of the fields in the affected regions.

Russia banned most sugar exports on May 3 after they had grown by over three-fold to 700 million tons between September 2023 and February 2024.

The agriculture ministry said the ban would help maintain sufficient carry-over stocks and ensure sugar supply to Russia's ex-Soviet allies in the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), which includes Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Belarus.

The ban was lifted Sept. 1 and Ivanov said the country could export up to 1 million tons with its current carry-over stocks of 1.46 million tons and domestic consumption at 5.8 million tons.

IKAR's conservative estimate for this season's exports stands at 600,000 tons.

Russia has been actively returning to its traditional markets since the ban was lifted with deliveries resuming to ex-Soviet states outside of the EEU such as Azerbaijan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan.

"Most likely, this season we will return to all traditional markets, which include around 18 countries," Ivanov said.

27.09.24

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