IKAR in Mass and Industry Media

Russian export prices rose last week amid deteriorating crop forecasts

Reuters

MOSCOW, Sept 30 (Reuters) - Russian wheat export prices rose last week amid worsening forecasts due to bad weather and shipments also picked up.

The price of 12.5% protein Russian new crop wheat scheduled free-on-board (FOB) with delivery in November was $222 per metric ton at the end of last week, up $5, Dmitry Rylko, head of IKAR consultancy said.

The Sovecon consultancy reported that prices for Russian wheat with the same protein content were $219-$221 per ton, up from $217-220 the previous week.

“We believe that this is a slight recovery in prices. Here (in Russia the situation) is becoming a little more difficult, and the market is reacting to it,” Rylko said.

Last week IKAR cut its forecast for both Russia's wheat and its grain crop in general.

Industry analysts and experts last week noted the slow pace of the planting campaign for the 2025 crop due to difficult weather conditions. The weather also affected this year's crop, especially the corn crop. Analysts predicted export restrictions, and the Ministry of Agriculture on Friday raised the export duty on corn almost 10-fold.

Rylko said he assumed higher prices in November and expected December prices to be higher than November prices.

Weekly grain exports last week are estimated at 1.18 million tons, up from 0.94 million a week ago, including 1.14 million tons of wheat, down from 0.85 million.

Sovecon estimated Russia's September wheat exports at 4.9 million tons, in line with last year’s figure.

As of Sept. 19, Russian farmers had harvested 100.5 million tons of grain. The wheat harvest totalled 73.5 million tons from 22.9 million hectares, down from 84.6 million tons from 23.8 million hectares last year, Sovecon said.

As of Sept. 20, winter grains were sown across 8.3 million hectares, compared to 9.3 million hectares in 2023.

"The central and southern regions badly need meaningful rain during the rest of the month to avoid an increased risk of poor yields in 2025", Sovecon noted.

Other Russian data provided by Sovecon and IKAR:

Product:
Most recent data:
Change from a week earlier

- Domestic 3rd class wheat, European part of Russia, excludes delivery (Sovecon)
14,875 rbls/t
+200 rbls/t

- Sunflower seeds (Sovecon)
34,575 rbls/t
+1,100 rbls/t

- Domestic sunflower oil (Sovecon)
86,175 rbls/t
+3,000 rbls/t

- Domestic soybeans (Sovecon)
37,900 rbls/t
+1,025 rbls/t

- Export sunflower oil (IKAR)
$980/t
+$30

- White sugar, Russia's south (IKAR)
$617.90/t
+$34.3/t

30.09.24

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