IKAR in Mass and Industry Media

Russian wheat export prices have halted decline, shipment volumes fell

Reuters

MOSCOW, July 15 (Reuters) - Russian wheat export prices have halted their over one-month fall and shipment volumes are down, but farmers are not ready to sell at even lower prices despite active harvesting the new crop, analysts say.

The price of 12.5% protein Russian new crop wheat scheduled free-on-board (FOB) with delivery in late August was $219 per metric ton at the end of last week, $3 higher than a week earlier, according to the IKAR consultancy.

"Still, there is some resistance on the part of farmers, which exporters have to reckon with," IKAR head Dmitry Rylko told Reuters.

Sovecon put the price of wheat with a protein content of 12.5% for the nearest delivery at $219-222 per ton at the end of last week, down from $221-$224 per ton FOB.

"Russian FOB remains mostly flat. Exporters might offer slightly lower prices if needed, but low traders' margins suggest a relatively small supply," Sovecon said.

Russia started harvesting several weeks early due to weather conditions. As of July 9 Russian farmers had harvested 27.5 million tons of grain against 7.5 million tons a year earlier, from 7 million hectares, up from a previous 2 million hectares.

The average yield was 3.95 tons per hectare, up from 3.69 tons a hectare the year before.

The wheat harvest totalled 22.2 million tons, up from 4 million tons, from 5.4 million hectares, against 1 million hectares, with an average yield of 4.13 tons per hectare, versus 3.88 tons.

This week temperatures are expected to be hotter than normal in all regions except parts of the Volga Valley and the Urals. This could negatively impact some spring wheat, corn, and sunflower crops, Sovecon noted

IKAR today has raised its forecast for the country's wheat crop to 83.2 million metric tons from 82 million tons, mostly due to higher yield prospects in Volga regions.

Russia is the world's largest wheat exporter. Its exports shrunk to 0.60 million tons of grain last week from 0.84 million the week before.

Shipments included 0.51 million tons of wheat, down from 0.70 million tons a week earlier, Sovecon wrote, citing port data.

Sovecon lowered its wheat export forecast for July by 0.4 million tons compared to last week to 2.8 million tons pared to a record 4.5 million tons a year ago.

Other Russian data provided by Sovecon and IKAR:

Product:
Most recent data:
Change from a week earlier

- Domestic 3rd class wheat, European part of Russia, excludes delivery (Sovecon)
13,975 rbls/t
-200 rbls/t

- Sunflower seeds (Sovecon)
31,700 rbls/t
+100 rbls/t

- Domestic sunflower oil (Sovecon)
77,350 rbls/t
0 rbls/t

- Domestic soybeans (Sovecon)
40,300 rbls/t
+500 rbls/t

- Export sunflower oil (IKAR)
$905/t
-$0.5

- White sugar, Russia's south (IKAR)
$687.58/t
-$10.33/t

15.07.24

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