IKAR in Mass and Industry Media

Argus slashes 2024 Russian wheat crop forecast on weather damage

Reuters

PARIS, June 24 (Reuters) - Argus cut its forecast for Russian wheat output this year to a three-year low of 79.5 million metric tons, down nearly 12 million tons from 2023, after dry weather and late frosts hit crops in the world's largest exporter of the cereal.

The forecast includes 56.6 million tons of winter wheat production, based on a yield at 3.65 tons per hectare, after a virtual crop tour in the southern and central regions of the country, commodity analysis firm Argus said.

Argus's forecast is well below those of leading Russian analysts Sovecon and Ikar, which put Russia's wheat harvest at 80.7 and 82 million tons, respectively. Meanwhile the U.S. Department of Agriculture cut its projection to 83 million tons.

"The unfavourable weather — persistently dry conditions and late frost episodes — has rapidly reduced winter wheat yield potential in the southern, Volga and central regions of the country," Argus said in a statement.

However, some regions, such as Krasnodar and Stavropol, were largely spared from frost damage, and favourable rains have been falling over the past few days in central Russia, another important winter wheat-producing region.

"This could suggest more moderate losses in winter wheat production than those anticipated a few weeks ago," it said.

Argus forecasts Russia's spring wheat production this year at 22.8 million tons.

With the spring wheat harvest starting in several weeks, only Argus' Russian total wheat production forecast, which does not include Crimea, could see further changes, it said.

24.06.24

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