IKAR in Mass and Industry Media

Russian new harvest wheat export prices decline as bad weather fears subside

Reuters

MOSCOW, June 17 (Reuters) - Russian wheat export prices for the new harvest have declined significantly from a week ago as concern over the impact of bad weather on the grain harvest has subsided, analysts said.

The price of 12.5% protein Russian new crop wheat scheduled free-on-board (FOB) with delivery in July was $234 per metric ton at the end of last week, $8 lower than the price of this class of old crop wheat a week earlier, according to the IKAR consultancy.

In late May, the price of a ton of new crop wheat was estimated by the market at $250 FOB and higher, agriculture consultancy Sovecon wrote.

Sovecon determined the price of wheat with a protein content of 12.5% with the nearest delivery at $244-248 a ton at the end of last week, down from $250-$253 a ton FOB.

According to IKAR head Dmitry Rylko, apart from Turkey, which announced that it had stopped imports, demand from other importers is weak, as buyers see that the harvest in the Black Sea region is not as bad as previously feared.

"It feels like the market has priced in Russian crop problems for now," Sovecon noted.

"Russian weather is becoming friendlier for the new crop. However, rains at this stage (post grain-filling) are irrelevant for wheat yields in the south. On the contrary, if they last too long, they could damage quality and lead to additional losses."

Spring frosts and drought resulted in the loss of a substantial part of the winter crops, which had to be reseeded.

The weekly consensus forecast by the Rusgrain Union showed an 8.6% decline in the 2024 wheat crop to 79.3 million tons and a 14.7% drop in wheat exports in the 2024/25 season to 40.0 million tons.

Russia has almost completed the sowing campaign and started harvesting the new crop in the southern regions of the country.

As of June 7, farmers had seeded 27.0 million hectares of grains, compared to 29.7 million hectares in the same period in 2023. That included 12.1 million hectares of spring wheat, compared to 13.6 million last year, Sovecon wrote.

Russia is the world's largest wheat exporter. Its exports declined to 0.80 million tons of grain last week from 1.36 million in the previous week. Exports included 0.78 million tons of wheat, down from 1.19 million tons a week earlier, Sovecon wrote, citing port data.

Sovecon estimates wheat exports in June at 4.0 million tons, compared to 3.6 million tons in June 2023.

Other Russian data provided by Sovecon and IKAR:

Product:
Most recent data:
Change from a week earlier

- Domestic 3rd class wheat, European part of Russia, excludes delivery (Sovecon)
14,550 rbls/t
+100 rbls/t

- Sunflower seeds (Sovecon)
32,250 rbls/t
+1,275 rbls/t

- Domestic sunflower oil (Sovecon)
78,175 rbls/t
+2,000 rbls/t

- Domestic soybeans (Sovecon)
40,450 rbls/t
+450 rbls/t

- Export sunflower oil (IKAR)
$930/t
+$20

- White sugar, Russia's south (IKAR)
$702.87/t
-$1.28/t

17.06.24

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