IKAR in Mass and Industry Media

Russian wheat export prices rise as crop forecasts cut

Reuters

MOSCOW, May 27 (Reuters) - Russian wheat export prices continue to rise as forecasters cut their harvest estimates due to poor weather and the slow pace of sowing, which slid to a six-year low.

The price of 12.5% protein Russian wheat scheduled for free-on-board (FOB) delivery in late June was $247 per metric ton, up from $239 per ton the previous week, according to the IKAR consultancy.

The Sovecon agriculture consultancy pegged the same class of wheat at $242-$246 a ton, up from $236-$240 a ton FOB.

Industry analysts continue to downgrade this season's crop and export forecasts due to frosts in May and drought in southern and central regions. Waterlogged soil in Siberia has not yet been taken into account, analysts said.

Russia's agriculture ministry does not plan to revise its forecasts for the grain harvest or exports, but may announce a country-wide emergency over the frost damage to crops, said newly-appointed Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut. Declaring an emergency can help farmers with insurance claims.

Some 1.5 million hectares of crops in Russia have been damaged by bitter frosts this spring, and the total figure may rise to 2 million hectares, the head of Russia's Grain Union, Arkady Zlochevsky, said on Monday.

The weather outlook continues to deteriorate for the new wheat crop, Sovecon noted.

"The 4.1 million hectares planted for spring wheat is the smallest area since 2018," the consultancy said in the weekly note.

Russia is the world's largest wheat exporter. Its exports rose to 1.07 million metric tons of grain last week, from 1.0 million in the previous week. Exports included 0.97 million tons of wheat, up from 0.79 million tons a week earlier, Sovecon wrote, citing port data.

Sovecon increased its wheat export estimate for May by 0.2 million tons to a record 4.3 million tons, compared to 4.1 million tons in May 2023.

Other Russian data provided by Sovecon and IKAR:

Product:
Most recent data:
Change from a week earlier

- Domestic 3rd class wheat, European part of Russia, excludes delivery (Sovecon)
13,925 rbls/t
+725 rbls/t

- Sunflower seeds (Sovecon)
28,975 rbls/t
+1,650 rbls/t

- Domestic sunflower oil (Sovecon)
74,350 rbls/t
+1,175 rbls/t

- Domestic soybeans (Sovecon)
38,900 rbls/t
+1,300 rbls/t

- Export sunflower oil (IKAR)
$835/t
+$10

- White sugar, Russia's south (IKAR)
$686.98/t
+$19.36/t

27.05.24

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