IKAR in Mass and Industry Media

Frosts caused sharp jump in export prices for Russian wheat last week

Reuters

MOSCOW, May 20 (Reuters) - Russian wheat export prices rose even more sharply last week than the week before as crop damage from May frosts led to further cuts in forecasts for this year's harvest.

The price of 12.5% protein Russian wheat scheduled for free-on-board (FOB) delivery in June was $239 per metric ton, up from $221 per ton the previous week, according to the IKAR consultancy.

The Sovecon agriculture consultancy pegged the same class of wheat at $236-240 a ton, up from $223 to $227 a ton FOB.

An emergency regime remains in place in a dozen regions of Russia due to crop loss because of the frosts. Russia's agriculture ministry has estimated the area needing to be replanted to date at 900,000 hectares, which is about 1% of the total area under crops.

Looking ahead, the temperature is expected to be colder than normal in all regions but with no frosts, Sovecon said.

"Lack of moisture in topsoil is a problem for farmers who want to replant recently damaged fields," it said.

The consensus forecast by the Russian Union of Grain Exporters for the grain harvest in 2024 is 134.5 million tons, including 86.8 million tons of wheat.

Russia is the world's largest wheat exporter. Its exports rose to 1.0 million metric tons of grain last week, from 0.91 million metric tons the previous week. Exports included 0.79 million metric tons of wheat, down from 0.85 metric tons a week earlier, Sovecon wrote, citing port data.

Sovecon estimates wheat exports in May at 4.1 million metric tons, the same as May 2023, which was a record.

Russian grain exports this season are still expected to hit a record, Agriculture Ministry head Oksana Lut said on Friday.

As of May 7, farmers had seeded 9.1 million hectares of grains compared to 11.1 million hectares in the same period in 2023. That included 2.4 million hectares of spring wheat, compared to 3.7 million last year, Sovecon wrote.

Other Russian data provided by Sovecon and IKAR:

Product:
Most recent data:
Change from a week earlier

- Domestic 3rd class wheat, European part of Russia, excludes delivery (Sovecon)
13,200 rbls/t
+675 rbls/t

- Sunflower seeds (Sovecon)
27,325 rbls/t
+425 rbls/t

- Domestic sunflower oil (Sovecon)
73,175 rbls/t
+325 rbls/t

- Domestic soybeans (Sovecon)
37,600 rbls/t
+325 rbls/t

- Export sunflower oil (IKAR)
$825/t
+$15

- White sugar, Russia's south (IKAR)
$667.62/t
+$9.15/t

20.05.24

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