IKAR in Mass and Industry Media

Russian wheat export prices up last week for the first time since early January, say analysts

Reuters

MOSCOW, March 18 (Reuters) - Russian wheat export prices grew last week for the first time since early January after a long decline, analysts said.

The price of 12.5% protein Russian wheat scheduled for free-on-board (FOB) delivery in April was $201 a metric ton, up $3 from the previous week, the IKAR agriculture consultancy reported.

The Sovecon agriculture consultancy pegged the same class of wheat at $201 to $204 a ton FOB, compared with $199 to $202 a week earlier.

"This week’s increase is the first one since early January. Russian wheat is priced very competitively at the moment, $200 is a nice round number, EU prices are rising gradually, and some importers still need to cover April-June. The narrative that 'Russia needs to sell a lot of wheat before the new crop' looks wrong to us", Sovecon wrote in its weekly note.

"Some farmers do need to sell, but this doesn’t imply that it would convert into record high exports. Amid low competition and control from the Ministry of Agriculture the majority of exporters prefer to prioritise their margins over volumes."

Russia exported 1.20 million tons of grain last week, up from 1.15 million tons the previous week. The exports included 0.93 million tons of wheat, down from 1.03 million tons a week earlier, Sovecon wrote, citing port data.

The consultancy's estimate for wheat exports in March was 4.8 million tons, the same as a year earlier.

The Ministry of Agriculture last week reported that the pace of spring sowing in Russia was twice as fast as last year and that the area under spring crops amounted to 424,600 hectares.

Weather conditions are deteriorating gradually for new crops due to a lack of precipitation in recent weeks, Sovecon noted.

Other Russian data provided by Sovecon and IKAR:

Product:
Most recent data:
Change from a week earlier

- Domestic 3rd class wheat, European part of Russia, excludes delivery (Sovecon)
11,500 rbls/t
-100 rbls/t

- Sunflower seeds (Sovecon)
23,525 rbls/t
+225 rbls/t

- Domestic sunflower oil (Sovecon)
70,850 rbls/t
+1,000 rbls/t

- Domestic soybeans (Sovecon)
37,900 rbls/t
+300 rbls/t

- Export sunflower oil (IKAR)
$790/t
+$50

- White sugar, Russia's south (IKAR)
$662.37/t
+$3.75/t

19.03.24

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