IKAR in Mass and Industry Media

Wheat prices slip nearly 1% as cheap Russian grain floods market

Reuters

CANBERRA, Sept 19 (Reuters) - Chicago wheat prices fell nearly 1% on Tuesday after sliding 2.2% in the previous session as cheap Russian grain flooded the market and the docking of ships in Ukraine raised hopes of easier shipments from the war-torn country.

Corn and soybean futures also dropped as the start of the U.S. harvest boosted supply at a time of slack demand.

FUNDAMENTALS:

* The most-active wheat contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) was down 0.9% at $5.85-3/4 a bushel at 0112 GMT and slipping towards last week's 33-month low of $5.70.

* CBOT corn was 0.2% lower at $4.70-1/2 a bushel and soybeans were down 0.1% at $13.15 a bushel.

* The price of 12.5%-protein Russian wheat for free-on-board (FOB) delivery in October fell to $235 a metric ton last week, the IKAR agriculture consultancy said.

* The SovEcon agriculture consultancy, meanwhile, estimated Russia's monthly shipments at 4.9 million tons in September versus 4.2 million last year.

* Also pressuring prices was news that two cargo vessels arrived in Ukraine on Saturday using a temporary corridor to sail into Black Sea ports and load grain despite the collapse of a safe-passage deal with Russia earlier this year.

* "Funds view the lack of action by the Russians as a sell signal," analysts at StoneX said in a note. Ukraine is a major exporter.

* Meanwhile, traders said importers in China bought between five and 10 cargoes of about 60,000 tons each of French wheat in the past week.

* Commodity funds were net sellers of Chicago soybean, wheat, corn, soyoil and soymeal futures on Monday, traders said.

* Turning to corn and soybeans, the U.S. government data showed the U.S. corn harvest was 9% complete by Sunday and the soybean harvest was 5% complete, both ahead of five-year averages.

* Crop condition ratings hovered at their lowest in a decade, with 51% of corn and 52% of soybeans in "good to excellent" condition, reflecting dry conditions.

* U.S. soybean production should fall to a four-year low of 4.146 billion bushels this year, but corn output should be the second-largest on record at 15.1 billion bushels, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecast last week.

* The United States is the world's No. 2 exporter of corn and soybeans after Brazil.

* Export demand for U.S. soybeans remained weak despite confirmation by the USDA on Monday of private sales of 123,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans to China for shipment in 2023/24.

* Soybean spot basis bids fell at processors and elevators in the eastern half of the U.S. Midwest in anticipation of increased harvest selling, dealers said.

* Chicago soybean prices have fallen more than 3% from last Thursday's close. Corn is hovering near a 33-month low of $4.69 a bushel reached on Monday.

* Outside the United States, the European Union's crop monitoring service MARS cut its forecast for this year's EU grain maize yield by 3% to 7.26 metric tons per hectare.

* Analyst APK-Inform raised upgraded its estimate for Ukraine's 2023/24 corn exports to 19 million metric tons from 18 million.

* Meteorologists and analysts said a large part of Brazil was expected to suffer from extreme heat this week that could hamper the country's soybean planting.

MARKETS NEWS

Global equities slid and the 10-year Treasury yield traded near a 16-year high on Monday amid concerns that high U.S. interest rates will take a toll on U.S. consumers.

19.09.23

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