IKAR in Mass and Industry Media

Russian wheat export prices dip, deal reported below AgMin «floor»

Reuters

Sept 11 (Reuters) - Russian wheat export prices inched lower last week, tracking global benchmarks, as analysts continue to raise crop and export forecasts for this season.

The price of 12.5%-protein Russian wheat scheduled for free-on-board (FOB) delivery in October was $240 per metric ton last week, down from $245 a ton week earlier, the IKAR agriculture consultancy reported.

The SovEcon agriculture consultancy sees the price for this class of wheat at $246-$250 per ton FOB, compared with $248-$250 per ton a week earlier.

Russian attacks on Ukrainian and Danube ports have so far failed to affect wheat prices.

"Some damage has been done to the Danube elevators and transport. However, for now, navigation is still running," SovEcon said in a note.

"Freight rates have been flat in recent weeks around 40-45 euro/mt (Izmail-Constanta) but perhaps we will see an increase shortly."

Meanwhile, according to SovEcon, Egypt's GASC bought 480,000 tons of Russian wheat without a tender last Friday reportedly at $270 C&F from Solaris/Demetra, meaning the FOB price had to be below the $270 unofficial price set by the Russian agriculture ministry.

Also, analysts further raised their forecasts for this year's Russian grains exports, with SovEcon last week revising the figure to 48.6 million tons from 48.1 million tons.

Russia exported 1.22 million tons of grain last week compared to 1.19 million tons a week earlier, including 1.03 million tons of wheat, compared with 1.11 million tons a week earlier, SovEcon wrote in its weekly note, citing port data.

The wheat harvest as of Sept.6 totalled 78.7 million tons (versus 91.5 million tons а year earlier) from 21.0 million hectares (versus 23.7 million hectares), with an average yield of 3.75 tons per hectare (3.86 tons per hectare).

This accounts for 71% of the total area to be harvested. According to the Russian Ministry of Agriculture, over 108 million tons of grain had already been threshed as of Sept.6.

Sowing of winter grains was carried out on an area of 4.6 million hectares, up from 3.9 million hectares a year earlier, Sovecon wrote.

Other Russian data provided by Sovecon and IKAR:

Product:
Most recent data:
Change from week earlier

- Domestic 3rd class wheat, European part of Russia, excludes delivery (Sovecon)
13,750 rbls/t
-125 rbls/t

- Sunflower seeds (Sovecon)
26,025 rbls/t
-1,500 rbls/t

- Domestic sunflower oil (Sovecon)
80,675 rbls/t
-1,000 rbls/t

- Domestic soybeans (Sovecon)
33,800 rbls/t
-1,200 rbls/t

- Export sunflower oil (IKAR)
$795/t
-$10

- White sugar, Russia's south (IKAR)
$605.91/t
+$3.81

13.09.23

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