IKAR in Mass and Industry Media

Russian grain still flows to top end users, but prices higher

Bloomberg

SEVEN WEEKS after its invasion of Ukraine, Russia is still exporting grain to some of its biggest customers, even as shipping costs soar.

REUTERS

The main buyers remain Egypt, Turkey and Iran, said Dmitry Rylko, general director of the Moscow-based Institute for Agricultural Market Studies. The resilience of grain exports, despite sanctions and moves by some traders to shun Russian commodities, is pushing some market observers to raise their estimates for shipments this season.

Almost 900,000 tons of wheat have been loaded in Russian ports so far this month, in line with the pace in March, according to Logistics OS. Crop data from AgFlow also show Russian exports of key agricultural commodities, including wheat, fell just shy of 1 million tons in the first 13 days of April, close to level in the same period in March.

Those shipments have spurred analysts like Strategie Grains to downgrade their outlook for wheat exports from the European Union, one of Russia’s biggest competitors. The US Department of Agriculture last week also raised its estimate for Russian wheat exports in the current season to 33 million tons, though that remains short of the 35 million tons it forecast before the war.

Under Russian quotas, exports from February to June are limited to 8 million tons. The Russian Union of Grain Traders said earlier this week that it expects exports to slow in April, according to local newspaper Kommersant. IKAR’s Rylko also expects grain shipments to slow in the coming months compared with March due to a stronger ruble and high export taxes.

The ruble has strengthened to pre-war levels after Moscow imposed capital controls, forcing exporters to convert most of their overseas earnings into the Russian currency. Export taxes, which are linked to wheat prices, are at a record high of $101.40 a ton. That means Moscow generates revenue of about $3 million for every 30,000-ton shipment of wheat.

Shipping costs from the Black Sea region have also soared, climbing 50% to 80% from last year due to war risks, according to UkrAgroConsult. Fleets under non-Russian flags don’t want to enter Russian ports due to high insurance costs and sanctions, Evgeny Popov, chartering manager at St. Petersburg-based shipping company Nitro, said by phone.

Russia’s Black Sea ports are still operating, and traffic is resuming in the Sea of Azov, according to Strategie Grains.

Still, nearby importers will weigh whether Russian wheat remains competitive versus origins further afield, said AgFlow Chief Executive Officer Nabil Mseddi. Egypt booked one cargo from Russia in its latest wheat tender on Wednesday, although France took the bulk of purchases. — Bloomberg

25.04.22

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