IKAR in Mass and Industry Media

Russian 2011 Grain Crop May Be Below 70 Million Tons (Update1)

Bloomberg

Oct. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Russia may reap less than 70 million metric tons of grain next year if winter is severe and farmers face more hurdles in obtaining seeds and funding for spring sowing, the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies said.

“The crop may be only slightly higher than this year, should there be high winter kill in grains and if farmers continue to face problems with seeds and financing,” Oleg Sukhanov, an analyst at the Moscow-based institute, said by telephone today. The harvest may be between 70 million and 80 million tons under an “optimistic” forecast, he said.

Russia’s grain crop dropped 38 percent to 60 million tons this year because of the country’s worst drought in at least half a century, forcing the government to ban cereal exports until July 1, 2011. The harvest must come to between 85 million and 90 million tons in 2011 to meet domestic demand, according to the Agriculture Ministry.

Imports of grain into Russia may be “significant” if the crop were to fall below 70 million tons and prices in neighboring Ukraine and Kazakhstan were lower than domestic levels, according to Sukhanov of IKAR, as the institute is known. Substantial inbound shipments from the U.S. and Europe are unlikely, he said.

23.11.10

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