IKAR in Mass and Industry Media

IKAR ups forecast for Russia's crop for third time in two weeks

Reuters

MOSCOW, Aug 10 (Reuters) - Russian agriculture consultancy IKAR said on Monday it had raised its forecast for Russia's 2020/21 grain crop by 1.5 million tonnes to 129 million tonnes due to higher yields in some regions.

It was its third upgrade in two weeks as yields are rising sharply in the Central and Volga regions, signalling brighter export prospects for the country after its southern regions were hit by dry weather.

"There is some further upside but we remain cautious because the situation in the Urals and Siberia remains highly foggy and there is still much to harvest in the European part of Russia," said Dmitry Rylko, the head of IKAR.

The Urals and Siberia have been hit by dry weather this year. Sovecon, another consultancy, has said that the conditions for the spring wheat crop there are the worst since 2012.

Russian farmers have already harvested 54.8 million tonnes of wheat before drying and cleaning from 50.7% of the area, with an average yield of 3.67 tonnes per hectare.

"It is a phenomenal year: it is the first time in the modern history of Russia when the cumulative yields are gradually rising up until 50% of the wheat harvested area," Rylko said.

IKAR, one of the leading agriculture consultancies in Moscow, raised its estimate for the wheat crop by 1.5 million tonnes to 81 million, it said in a note.

IKAR's new forecast for Russia's 2020/21 grain exports sees them at 48 million tonnes, including 37 million tonnes of wheat.

The European Union overtook Russia as the world's top wheat exporter in the 2019/20 season which ended June 30, but Russia is widely expected to be the world's leader again in the current 2020/21 season due to this year's large crop.

10.08.20

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