IKAR in Mass and Industry Media

Wednesday's Child

agweb.com

We have reached midweek once again, and in what seems to have been the norm more often than not, we appear to have a lack of fresh news to provide direction, and grain/soy markets wander semi-aimlessly. It is difficult to imagine but could Mother Goose have had this in mind when she wrote, “Wednesday’s Child is full of woe.”?

China's recent crackdown on importing meat products from any plant that is experiencing cases of coronavirus is hitting home with rising meat prices. Since May, retail pork prices have jumped nearly 50%. At this point, they have banned the import of meats from 14 different facilities around the world, and seven other operations have voluntarily halted shipments. As we have reported previously, they have also stepped up inspections at ports of entry, and there have been zero instances of the virus detected in imported meat, and there is no scientific evidence that it can be transmitted this way.

China's pork prices rebound

Slipping in a couple of days ahead of the USDA, Conad released estimates for Brazilian crop production, albeit with rather insignificant changes. They now place bean production at 120.88 MMT, up 460k from last month, and total corn production at 100.56 MMT, down 430k. These compare last month's USDA figures of 124 for beans and 101 corn and Dr. Cordonnier's current estimates of 121 and 98.

The French farm ministry now projects that soft wheat production in that nation will be down 21% this year, coming in at 31.31 MMT. This would also be 12.4% below the 5-year average. Barley output is projected to fall 10.3% and rapeseed production to be down 3.7%.

Not to be left out, Russian consultant IKAR released updated numbers for their crops and lowered total grain output 2 MMT to 126 million. The wheat crop was sliced 1.5 MMT to 78 million.

I guess that just leaves the USDA for this week, but we will have to wait until Friday for the results. Once again, here are trade estimates: Domestic corn production 15.04 billion bushels using an average yield of 178.5 bpa. The soybean crop is expected to total 4.15 billion with a yield of 50 bpa. All wheat production is expected to come through at 1.848 billion. Carryout estimates for the current crop year place have corn at 2.277 billion and beans at 584 million, and for 2020/21, they are looking for 2.683 billion corn, 416 million beans, and 948 million wheat. 2019/20 global ending stocks are expected to total 315.07 MMT of corn, 99.35 MMT beans, and 297.3 MMT wheat. Then for 2020/21, they are projected to come through at 324.84 MMT corn, 96.71 MMT beans, and 315.89 MMT wheat.

Morning weather forecasts call for generally favorable crop conditions for the next week with the best rains reserved for the Midwest's northern reaches. Conditions look a bit dicier then for the second half of the month.

Macros are also uninspired today with energies flat, metals higher, equities positive, but not by much and the dollar leaning soft.

https://agweb.com/blog/wednesdays-child

09.07.20

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