IKAR: Russian wheat export prices down with global benchmark

Russian wheat export prices fell last week after several weeks of growth, tracking a decline in benchmark Chicago futures, analysts said on Monday.

A Russian grain export quota of 7 million tonnes for April to the end of June had been put in place in response to the coronavirus crisis.

The quota was reached on Sunday, with the agriculture ministry for the world’s biggest wheat exporter saying that grain exports will now be suspended until July once the second-quarter quota has been shipped.

Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content loaded from Black Sea ports and for the nearest delivery was down $1 at $230 a tonne free on board (FOB) at the end of last week, SovEcon said in a note. Barley was steady at $180 a tonne.

IKAR, another Moscow agriculture consultancy, pegged wheat at $228 a tonne, down $4. Prices for the new crop, which is due to arrive this summer, for delivery in late July fell by $1 to $198 a tonne.

“Demand is weakening after rapid exports in the previous weeks. Concerns about the fast quota depletion may also discourage buyers,” SovEcon said.

Russia exported 34.1 million tonnes of grain between the July 1 start of the 2019/20 season and April 23, down 12% from a year earlier, SovEcon said, citing customs data. Of this, wheat exports accounted for 29.2 million tonnes.

SovEcon also said it had upgraded its estimate for Russia’s 2019/20 grain exports by 100,000 tonnes to 42.9 million tonnes.

Its forecast for wheat exports was raised by 400,000 tonnes to 33.7 million tonnes.

Russia’s domestic wheat prices rose last week as some exporters were still buying for their previously signed contracts, SovEcon said, adding that traders were generally very close to securing their required volumes or had done so already.

Product:             Price at the end       Change from week
                         of last week:                earlier
 - Domestic 3rd          14,500 rbls/t              +300 rbls
 class wheat,               ($195.10)   
 European part of                       
 Russia, excludes                       
 delivery (SovEcon)                     
 - Sunflower seeds       22,775 rbls/t              +225 rbls
 (SovEcon)                              
 - Domestic              50,175 rbls/t              +175 rbls
 sunflower oil                          
 (SovEcon)                              
 - export sunflower             $685/t                   -$15
 oil (SovEcon)                          
 - white sugar,               $324.8/t                  -$9.9
 Russia's south                         
 (IKAR)                                 
 ($1 = 74.3200 roubles)