IKAR in Mass and Industry Media

Russian wheat prices fall, barley up - analysts

Reuters

MOSCOW, Aug 23 (Reuters) - Russian milling wheat prices declined last week in regions located close to ports following an export ban, which became effective on Aug. 15, but feed grain prices rose due to supply shortages, analysts said on Monday.

In North Caucasus milling wheat fell by 800-900 roubles ($26.23-$29.51) to 5,350 roubles EXW per tonne for third-grade wheat and to 5,140 roubles per tonne for fourth grade wheat, SovEcon agricultural analysts said in a weekly note.

Fifth-grade wheat lost 300-400 roubles, declining to 4,800 roubles per tonne. The Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) said in its note that fourth-grade wheat prices declined in southern Russia to 4,800 roubles per tonne from 5,000 a week before.

"These values are of course much lower than before the announcement of the export ban, when for example, fourth-grade wheat (price) reached 6,000 per tonne," IKAR said.

It said third-grade wheat was quoted at about 5,125 roubles per tonne and feed wheat at about 4,475 roubles per tonne.

Feed barley prices rose last week in European Russia because of low supply caused by a drought. Its average price rose by 475 roubles per tonne last week, SovEcon said. IKAR said prices reached 4,900 per tonne in southern Russia.

Prices stopped rising in Siberia, where the harvesting campaign has just started. Initial yields were just 1.15 tonnes per hectare, down from 2 tonnes a year ago, SovEcon said.

Kazakhstan's third-grade wheat price is estimated at $225 per tonne, including delivery to Russia's border (DAF) and its potential FOB Black Sea price is estimated at $295 per tonne, IKAR said.

Kazakhstan refused to join the ban on grain exports imposed by Russia, its partner in a recently created customs union.

The market has started discussing starting prices for new crop sunseeds. Crushers talk about prices around 12,000-12,500 roubles per tonne including delivery (CPT), SovEcon said IKAR said starting sunseed prices are rumoured to vary from 11,500 roubles to 15,000 roubles per tonne. It said crude sunoil prices rose to 34,000 roubles per tonne from 33,000 due to limited supply.

Crushers in southern Russia started processing winter rapeseeds. Prices in the Central Black Soil region are around 13,000 roubles per tonne, while rapeoil prices are around 30,000 with most of it sold under long-term contracts.

Sugar prices rose further to 28,500 roubles or $936 per tonne from 27,000 roubles and $887 a week before.

The replacement cost, or cost of production of white sugar from imported cane raws, is estimated at $921 for August and $906 for September, IKAR said.

This makes imports of raw sugar profitable. But due to logistical issues sizeable imports of raw sugar are highly unlikely up until the end of October, it said.

10.09.10

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