IKAR in Mass and Industry Media

Russia exports 3.6 mln T grain before ban -analyst

Reuters

MOSCOW, Aug 18 (Reuters) - Russia exported 3.6 million tonnes of grain, including 3.3 million tonnes of wheat, between July 1 and Aug. 15, when a ban on exports became effective, an analyst said on Wednesday quoting a preliminary estimate.

"Nearly one million tonnes was exported in the last week before the ban," Dmitry Rylko, director of the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies, told Reuters.

The Russian government had estimated that Russia could export 2.8 million tonnes of grain between July 1 and Aug. 15.

Russia imposed a ban on grain exports from Aug. 15 to Dec. 31 to curb rising prices amid the worst heatwave on record.

Rylko declined to say whether Russia will be able to export anything more in the current crop year ending June 30, 2011, but said he expects the ban to be extended beyond Dec. 31.

He said IKAR estimates this year's grain crop will decline to 61-63 million tonnes from last year's 97 million tonnes because of the drought.

This is in line with the official forecast of 60-65 million tonnes, but is higher than the estimate by other leading analysts, SovEcon, of 59.5-63.1 million tonnes.

IKAR estimates grain consumption this year at 72 million tonnes, Rylko said. This is below the official estimate of 78 million tonnes. Thus the drastic decline of grain output and high exports before the ban may leave Russia with little if any more grain to export even if the ban is lifted.

10.09.10

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