IKAR in Mass and Industry Media

Russia May Reduce Grain-Crop Forecast Again, According to IKAR

Bloomberg

Aug. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Russia’s government may cut its forecast for the national grain harvest again as the country’s worst drought in at least 50 years reduces the crop’s quality, said the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies, or IKAR.

“Harvesting conditions in Siberia” will determine whether the forecast is lowered, Dmitry Rylko, director at Moscow-based IKAR, said by phone today. “There’s been some dryness, and rains coming in too early could also complicate the situation. Things will become clearer in a week.”

The drought has spurred 28 crop-growing regions to declare emergencies, and the government last week barred grain exports as of Aug. 15. The national grain crop will fall as low as 60 million metric tons this year from last year’s 97.1 million tons, according to the state.

Russian wheat is of low quality this year and grains are too small, Rylko said. Only “a little” wheat in drought- stricken areas is suitable for use in food and most is of animal-feed standard, while the crop in the country’s southern breadbasket is of “more or less decent” quality, he said.

Soil remains too dry for planting, potentially leading to a “tragic decline” in winter grain sowing, which normally makes up about 65 percent of the national wheat crop, Rylko said.

Central Russia and the Volga Federal District need adequate rains before Sept. 5 to permit planting, while southern regions, where sowing can take place as late as November, will be able to “find a good window,” he said.

The drought continues to damage late crops, according to Rylko, who predicted a 6.6 percent drop from last year in the Russian corn harvest to 3.7 million tons.

IKAR also cut its forecast for the sunflower-seed crop to between 6.5 million and 6.8 million tons from 6.9 million tons.

Russia harvested 6.45 million tons of the seeds last year.

24.08.10

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