IKAR in Mass and Industry Media

Russian grain prices down on low export demand

Reuters

MOSCOW, July 6 (Reuters) - Russian grain prices fell more last week on as expected healthy harvests elsewhere kept international demand low, analysts said on Monday.

"Exporters are concerned about low demand on the part of importing nations, which this season are expecting large wheat crops," the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) said.

"According to our calculations, the consolidated import demand for wheat on the part of the five biggest importers of Russian wheat has declined to 18 million tonnes from 27 million tonnes," it said.

SovEcon agricultural market analysts said that last week there were few deals as producers were not ready to sell at low prices, while international demand for Russian grain was quite low and exporters were not in a hurry to buy.

It said bid prices for Russian fourth grade milling wheat were 3,400-3,700 roubles ($108.8-$118.4) per tonne including delivery to silos, for feed wheat 2,400-2,700 roubles.

Offer prices for fourth-grade milling wheat were 4,000 roubles per tonne last week, SovEcon said.

IKAR said forward contracts for ordinary milling wheat had declined to $165 per tonne, FOB Novorossiisk. Feed wheat forward export prices fell to $130 per tonne, influenced by the expectations of large crops in neighbouring Ukraine.

Internal prices for old crop grain in southern Russia last week lost $5-$13 per tonne, IKAR said.

Russia has lost the two most recent Egyptian tenders, where the government bought French and U.S. wheat, while cheaper Russian grain failed even with the new demand that it should contain no more than 1 percent grain damaged by wheat bug.

The new crop demonstrates some 5 percent lower yields of winter barley and 10-12 percent lower yields of winter wheat in comparison with last year's record harvest, IKAR said.

SovEcon expects that the government, which plans to start intervention purchases on August 1, may provide support to Russian grain prices.

Crude sunoil export prices declined by $10 to $730 per tonne, while domestic sunseed purchase prices fell to $285-295 per tonne, IKAR said. SovEcon said crude sunoil lost 350 roubles ($11.20) per tonne last week on high supply and low exporters' demand.

IKAR said the range of prices for winter rapeseed in southern Russia of $230-$250 per tonne suggest that old crop sunseed purchase prices will continue to decline to acceptable levels.

SovEcon said initial new crop rapeseed bid prices were in the range of 7,500-8,000 roubles per tonne including delivery to crushers.

30.07.09

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