IKAR in Mass and Industry Media

Russia's wheat export forecasts lowered

Agrimoney.com

Russia's rise to top rank in world wheat exports may not be quite as dramatic as had been expected, with quality worries and hiccups to Egyptian trade prompting some commentators to trim estimates.

Moscow-based agriculture consultancy Ikar on Tuesday cut its forecast for Russia's grain exports in 2016-17 by 600,000 tonnes to a – still high - 39.4m tonnes, citing setbacks including the relatively weak quality of the country's wheat harvest.

High yielding wheat crops, as Russia had this year, often come in with lower protein concentrations, with wet harvest-time weather denting specifications in the country's Central Region too.

"We have to export more wheat in the remaining months to be close to 30m tonnes," said Dr Dimitri Rylko, Ikar's general director.

"But the wheat quality this year is not as good as last year."

Dr Rylko also stressed the boost to competition from abundant supply of wheat in the world market, while the strengthening rouble was making Russian exports less competitive.

Egypt seesaws on ergot

The reduction in Ikar's forecast comes days after the US Department of Agriculture's Moscow bureau curtailed expectations for Russia's wheat exports in 2016-17.

The bureau forecast Russian wheat exports at 29m tonnes, nearly 1m tonne less than the USDA's official forecast

The bureau flagged the slow start to the season for shipments, thanks to the knock-on effects of Egypt's seesawing policy on ergot contamination in wheat imports.

"Despite the bumper grain crop and the historic high wheat crop, Russia's grain exports from July to September, were lagging behind year-on-year," the bureau said.

"Industry analysts attribute this to the absence of wheat exports to Egypt from August to September, due to Egypt's temporary zero ergot requirements for wheat."

Rouble woes

The bureau acknowledged that Russia's exports to Egypt were now poised to accelerate, after a series of orders, including from the official Gasc grain authority.

Gasc has already bought 540,000 tonnes of Russian wheat since the zero tolerance policy on ergot contamination in shipments was lifted in mid-September, and is expected later on Tuesday to purchase further such supplies.

However, the bureau added that "Russia's wheat exports are constrained by the world versus domestic grain prices and the rouble to the dollar exchange rate".

http://www.agrimoney.com/news/russias-wheat-export-forecasts-lowered--10064.html

26.10.16

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